Another team has to miss out on finals. Problem is none of the remaining teams particularly fancy missing out. While there may be some aggressive side-eye toward rebuilding going on, finals is still very much on the agenda.
The following three teams are the ones coaches feel are most likely to draw that short straw. Each of them has also been backed for a top 2 finish though – with one even pulling a flag nomination.
Suffice to say, there is a wide variation of opinion when it comes to the following clubs.
Shire Scourers
The inaugural premiers missed out on the finals for the first time in 2019, and their peers feel they’re at risk of having it happen again.
Four coaches have nominated them to miss out, and another four have backed them to sneak in the 6th spot. Nearly everyone is of the same opinion – they’re flirting with missing finals two years in succession.
Coaches Predictions:
- 8th – 1 coach
- 7th – 3 coaches
- 6th – 4 coaches
- 2nd – 1 coach
2020 Draft Results:
| 4 | Dylan Stephens SY – C |
| 11 | Lachlan Ash GWS – B,C |
| 19 | Aaron vandenBerg ME – C,F |
| 24 | Hamish Hartlett PA – B |
| 25 | Darcy Tucker FR – C,F |
| 34 | Tim Membrey SK – F |
| 44 | Conor McKenna ES – B |
| 47 | Dane Rampe SY – B |
| 54 | Bailey Dale WB – F |
| 64 | Ivan Soldo RI – R |
| 74 | Jack Watts PA – B |
| 90 | Will Day HW – B |
| 104 | Lewis Taylor SY – C,F |
| 124 | Alex Neal-Bullen ME – F |
| 134 | Grant Birchall BL – B |
| 144 | Sam Philp CA – C |
| 154 | Harrison Himmelberg GWS – R,F |
| 164 | Eric Hipwood BL – F |
| 174 | Patrick Naish RI – C |
| 184 | Rhys Mathieson BL – C,F |
| 194 | Tom Bellchambers ES – R |
Clearly the Scourers aren’t much impressed with this whole missing finals thing, as they kicked off an interesting 8 month trade odyssey since their 7th place finished was confirmed.
The rebuild kicked off in earnest when they shipped out defensive stalwarts Heath Shaw and Zach Tuohy to bring in 2nd and 5th round picks from the Chiefs. Pretty nifty work if you ask me.
Two days later received another 2 second round picks, but this time they had to ship out Tom Papley and Rory Atkins (whom they had acquired earlier in the year via their own 2nd round pick). Papley in particular I suspect many would’ve pegged as a key Scourer moving forward, but perhaps coach Schonfeldt is less high on him moving forward. Still, second round picks are premium picks – and they clearly valued the opportunities they represented more than Papley and Atkins.
Fast forward to the pre-draft build-up, and the Scouers shipped out Josh Caddy to bring in a 3rd round pick from the Love Sparkles. Then, on the same day, they shipped out one of their numerous second round picks in a package to bolster their defence with the oft-traded Brodie Smith.
These machinations resulted in additional 2nd, 3rd and 5th round picks. And with these selections, the Scourers appeared to try to have their cake and eat it too.
First, the cake – new prospects to propel the club to its second flag. With pick 4 they took a young midfield prospect in Dylan Stephens, despite being very deep in that part of the park. With pick 11 they snared premium defender prospect Lachie Ash – tremendous value given I suspect he was considered with pick 4. At 25 they selected Docker Darcy Tucker, who may provide midfield value at a forward position. Soldo at 64, Wil Day at 90 and Sam Philp at 144 rounded out a solid collection of young talent.
Now, the eating it – the Scourers didn’t dive headfirst into the full list overhaul, selecting many familiar faces and established players. Hartlett at 25, because they clearly haven’t been burnt enough by that experience. Rampe at 47, club mascot Jack Watts at 74, Taylor at 104. Birchall at 134. These are solid players, with relatively minimal long term value, who can serve in a best 22 and not look out of place. These are the selections of a team who still plans on competing.
What’s up with Aaron vandenberg at pick 19 though? Was there a hot Aaron vandenberg market I was unaware of? A guy who hadn’t played since 2018 and had a previous season high average of 73.9 wasn’t who I expected to see come off the board in round 2. Will be interested to look back on this one come season’s end.
Early Verdict
The Scourers have unrivaled depth throughout the midfield. There is almost too many good players here – they can’t play each of them every week. Injuries happen (hello Wines, Hannebery), but one can’t help but feel there may be some trades here…
It’s a different story down back and up forward. The cream is great (Crisp, Smith, Weller is a pretty handy trio. Heeney & Parish up forward) – but it gets thin fast. Franklin slowing down and Menegola losing forward eligibility hurt here, as do the loss of Caddy and Papley.
Do they have the fire power to muscle out one of the other finals competitors? They wouldn’t look out of place in the top six, but at whose expense?
MaherShalalHashBaz
The coaches aren’t entirely swayed by the flag. Four coaches think they’ll miss finals!
On the other hand someone thinks they’ll be repeat premiers. This is as wide a variation we’ve gotten from the coaches.
Coaches Predictions:
- 7th – 4 coaches
- 6th – 1 coach
- 5th – 2 coaches
- 4th – 1 coach
- 2nd – 1 coach
- Tipped for the flag – 1 coach
2020 Draft Results:
| 10 | Tom Green GWS – C |
| 14 | Charlie Curnow CA – F |
| 16 | Trent Rivers ME – B,C |
| 17 | Ben Ainsworth GC – C,F |
| 20 | Connor Budarick GC – C,F |
| 40 | Ben McEvoy HW – R |
| 60 | Cooper Stephens GE – C |
| 66 | Joe Daniher ES – F |
| 80 | Sam Lloyd WB – F |
| 84 | Charlie Dixon PA – F |
| 96 | Shane Edwards RI – B,C |
| 100 | Jay Rantall CW – C |
| 110 | Sam Reid GWS – B |
| 120 | Tristan Xerri NM – R,F |
| 130 | Paul Seedsman AD – C |
| 140 | Jake Waterman WC – F |
| 150 | Zac Giles-Langdon GWS – F |
| 160 | Reece Conca FR – C |
| 170 | Cale Hooker ES – B |
| 180 | Peter Wright GC – R,F |
| 186 | Robbie Tarrant NM – B |
| 188 | Shaun Atley NM – B |
It’s hard to know what to make of the premier’s off-season moves. They shipped out club stalwart Jack Steven to bring in Isaac Smith and improve their draft position. I loved that move for them. But then they traded out Brodie Smith, a player who may be in the mix to be the top scoring defender in 2020 thanks to his new found midfield role.
It’s entirely possible MSHB is simply selling high here (Smith has never averaged that high previously, and isn’t that far removed from a serious knee injury). It might be genius. But sitting here today I suspect if my objective was the flag, I’d rather Brodie Smith than the player they selected with the pick they got in return, Ben Ainsworth.
The draft itself I’m a fan of though. A great mix of talented prospects and capable contributors. I can’t help but feel this is a better version of the draft the Scourers had (I’m just handing out locker room material in these previews…)
Tom Green at 10 is immense value. Rivers and Budarick are rookies with similarly outstanding underage fantasy numbers. They’ve also grabbed another first rounder in Cooper Stephens at pick 60.
Ben McEvoy and Joe Daniher are risks worth taking at picks 40 and 60. Sam Lloyd and Shane Edwards are unfancied fantasy names who score reliably most weeks. Seedsman is handy depth at 130.
Charlie Curnow at pick 14 is perhaps the only obvious blemish here – and it’s not like we knew his knee would simply refuse to heal when the draft was held. It seems unlikely he’ll prove worthy of the selection in 2020.
Early Verdict
It’s hard to imagine the premiers missing out on the finals. Not with that midfield. Not with that defence. Not with Max Gawn in the ruck.
But four coaches think they will miss. One wonders if that’s simply down to the forward line.
MacPherson kept forward eligibility, which was a great boon. Westhoff continues to seemingly score well whenever the matchup demands it. Sam Lloyd is a nice contributor, but he doesn’t scare opponents.
It’s shaky beyond that though. Tom McDonald had a horrendous 2019. Daniher, Curnow and Dixon are all big injury concerns. The rest are untested, or barely tested.
Still, the rest of the team is solid. Coach Burgess would be disappointed if he wasn’t in a position to defend his title.
Love Sparkles
It’s almost rude to include the Sparkles alongside the aforementioned clubs – only 1 coach thinks they’ll miss the finals.
But only 1 coach expects them to finish any higher than 5th, planting them firmly in fringe territory.
Coaches Predictions:
- 7th – 1 coach
- 6th – 2 coaches
- 5th – 5 coaches
- 2nd – 1 coach
2020 Draft Results:
| 5 | Sam Powell-Pepper PA – C,F |
| 15 | Jy Simpkin NM – C,F |
| 35 | Blake Hardwick HW – B |
| 45 | Tom Cutler ES – C |
| 55 | Hayden Crozier WB – B |
| 65 | Jonathon Patton HW – R,F |
| 75 | Toby McLean WB – F |
| 85 | Nick Blakey SY – F |
| 95 | Dom Tyson NM – C |
| 105 | Bailey Williams WB – B |
| 114 | Daniel Howe HW – B,C |
| 115 | Taylor Duryea WB – B |
| 125 | Liam Stocker CA – B |
| 135 | Jamie Cripps WC – F |
| 145 | Jack Sinclair SK – C,F |
| 155 | Jeremy McGovern WC – B |
| 165 | Sam Gray SY – F |
| 175 | Callum Sinclair SY – R |
| 185 | Luke McDonald NM – B |
| 195 | Tom De Koning CA – R |
The Sparkles avoided the lure of rookies, settling for a collection of solid – if unspectacular – contributors, and a series of up and comers. There is a lot to like here. An argument could be made their first 7 selections is the best opening slate from any team in this past draft.
Sam Powell-Pepper is an investment worth making at pick 5. The still-young midfield bull acquired forward eligibility, and will slot straight into the best 22 at his new club. It’s a similar story with their second selection Jy Simpkin, a breakout favourite amongst some coaches.
Hardwick and Crozier are defenders who can be fielded with some confidence. McLean is basically found money at pick 75.
In fact, I think it’s feasible every player drafted here could take the field at some point in 2020 (though De Koning is stretch…). Hard to conclude this is anything other than a solid, practical, useful draft.
Early Verdict
The Love Sparkles boast one of the most interesting lists in the competition. A little older than most lists, but still bristling with talent. Capable of outscoring anyone in any given week, but seemingly always a sizeable step from the true flag contenders.
They had the off-season of a club that intends to go for it though, and nobody looks at their fixture and pencils the Sparkles in as a win. How far can they go? Can this list take them to the flag? Perhaps they’ll take heart from MaherShalalHashBaz’s triumph last year – it’s possible to snag a flag as constructed before any major list turnover is required.