1st Elimination Final
Defenestrators (3rd) v MaherShalalHashBaz (6th)
A replay of last year’s elimination final, coming about in unexpected circumstances.
MaherShalalHashBaz weren’t meant to be here. Six rounds ago they commenced a veteran sell-off. They’ve only lost once since then, sneaking into finals behind the efforts of newly crowned Dangergawn Medallist Zach Merrett.
Facing them will be perennial-contender-who-can’t-buy-a-finals-win Defenestrators, whose thumping win in the final round has seen them pole-vault both the Soliders and the Sparkles into third.
Will the hot run continue for last year’s premiers? Or will the Defenestrators finally break their unlucky run during the business end of the season?
Season Head-to-Head:
MaherShalalHashBaz 1. Defenestrators 0.
Key Players
Defenestrators
| Last 5 Avg | Notes | |
| Tom Mitchell | 96.2 | The leader of the engine room, coach Zerna will be banking on a match winning score from the two-time Dangergawn Medallist. Will need it to overcome potential frailties at the tail end of the best 22 |
| Matt Crouch | 105.8 | In scorching hot form after an indifferent season. Hard to see them losing if he pumps out another score like this. |
| Jack Scrimshaw | 73.6 | Has stepped into Sicily’s shoes, both for Hawthorn and the Defenestrators, since he went down with his ACL. |
| Robbie Gray | 72.3 | Defenestrators forward line isn’t the stuff of dreams. Will be hoping for some above average scores from at least one of them. Gray plays in the opening game of the round – good opportunity to set the tone for the other forwards. |
MaherShalalHashBaz
| Last 5 Avg | Notes | |
| Zach Merrett | 106.2 | The 2020 Dangergawn Medallist is the form player of the competition. |
| Josh Dunkley | 68.8 | One of their prime movers has been lacklustre. A turn in form would go a long way to delivering an upset. |
| Dan Houston | 71 | The leader of the MaherShalalHashBaz backline, the rest of which is a bit more… patchwork. Needs to deliver. |
| Rhys Stanley | 68.5 | Stepping into the big shoes of MSHB legend Max Gawn (who will be lining up on the other side of the field…) |
Verdict
MaherShalalHashBaz have a very stellar record against the Defenestrators, only succumbing to them once in their last 5 meetings. And when they’ve won, they’ve typically won big. This isn’t something the Defenestrators would be used to.
Nonetheless the Defenestrators would be disappointed if they lost this one. They’ve scored more than a 1,000 extra points than their opponents over the course of the season. They are the better team.
2nd Elimination Final
Solomon’s Soldiers (4th) v The Love Sparkles (5th)
This should be a barn-burner. The Soldiers are on the lookout for their first finals win, and having finished the home and away season as the second highest scoring team in the competition, should fancy their chances.
On the other side of the ledger are the Sparkles, who are very familiar with elimination finals. Youth and firepower face off against wily veterans with guile – days after they last faced off.
When these two play in recent times, it’s usually close. Last season they had an epic battle where the Soldiers triumphed 2030 to 2011. This game will make for good watching.
Season Head-to-Head
Solomon’s Soldiers 2. The Love Sparkles 0.
Key Players
Solomon’s Soldiers
| Last 5 Avg | Notes | |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 108.5 | In brilliant form and coming off a bye. Will be hoping for a 105+ score |
| Lachie Neale | 97.5 | Narrowly missed out on the Dangergawn yet again. One of two players to average over 100 in this shortened game time. Will |
| Jack Lukosius | 73.5 | Hot (107, 87) or cold (48, 52) over the past month. Hard to see them losing if it’s a hot week. |
| Christian Petracca | 82.1 | Scores have been trending down in recent weeks. |
The Love Sparkles
| Last 5 Avg | Notes | |
| Jake Lloyd | 103.5 | The best defender in the land. Can’t win if he doesn’t deliver |
| Jack Steele | 87 | A model of consistency with three scores above 90 in the last month. There is a 58 thrown in there though – can’t have that this week |
| Liam Ryan | 55 | Boom (94, 74, 71) or Bust (20, 16) in the last 5. Boom would go a long way toward an upset |
| Toby Greene | 71 | 85 last week after a run of sub-par form, and facing the Crows this week. Is a mammoth score on the cards? |
Verdict
The Soldiers have the firepower here, and if we simulate this matchup ten times, I think they win seven.
The Sparkles will need their stars to deliver – a 120-esque score from somewhere will put them right in the mix. They have a habit of delivering at this time of the year…
Backing the Soldiers to get their first finals victory, but won’t be surprised if the Love Sparkles pull through yet again.