A complete inversion from the other match-up on this weekend’s agenda. These two teams have a long history in finals, and they specifically have a long history in finals against each other. It sits alongside the Chiefs v Defenestrators and MaherShalalHashBaz v Te Puke Pukekos (or at least it’s predecessors) as the great recurring finals.
The Sparkles will be hoping to turn the tide of those past results.
Form Guide
Hard to get too excited by that if you’re a Roughnecks fan. Both clubs were basically mirror images of one another coming out of the byes, culminating in that Round 19 classic (more on that later). But over the past two rounds, the Sparkles have really separated themselves from the Roughnecks. There’s a clear favourite on the form front.
The Roughnecks are consistent – look at those last 3 weeks! They’ve found their level, and their level is a score of around 1750. That’s probably what they’re going to serve up most weeks. It probably won’t be much less than that. So the question, really, boils down to what their opponent serves up.
Last time they met…
Depends what time you looked at the clock, really. When the siren went the Roughnecks were in front by 5 points. About 10 minutes later the Sparkles were in front by 3 thanks to a post game adjustment of two tackles to Luke Davies-Uniacke (Two!??! How do you miss two tackles? What is this? I ain’t mad)
The history books show a Sparkles victory last time they met. But the history books also suggest the Roughnecks have an edge here. The all-time head-to-head is 15 Roughneck victories to just 4 for the Sparkles.
And then there’s the finals history, which is pretty extensive between these two clubs! They faced off in an elimination final back in 2019, which the Roughnecks won by more than 100 points despite a BOG showing from Toby Greene with a 142.
The year prior, in 2018, these two clubs played in a classic Preliminary Final, with the Roughnecks edging victory by just 11 points thanks in large part to a colossal 143 points from Luke Parker.
And in 2017 these two teams played in the final yet again, in a one-sided elimination final won by, you guessed it, the Roughnecks.
Three finals. Three Roughnecks victories. Will the streak continue, or will the Sparkles begin to even the ledger?
Path to Victory
For the Sparkles, recent history would suggest an 1800+ score will be enough to secure victory. The Roughnecks have a handful of superstars led by Taranto, Dawson and Laird, but they’re fielding 1st or 2nd year players every week. Those players are talented and proven capable of solid scores, but they’re also inconsistent. Prone to scores 50 points and lower. It’s the thing that’s kept them at arms length from the other contenders all season long. If the Sparkles can avoid such scores from their side of the fence, it will go a long way towards grinding out victory.
The Roughnecks meanwhile, have an opportunity before them. The Sparkles have lost Nick Daicos. Adam Cerra remains doubtful. The fixture affords the Sparkles limited looping opportunities (all eyes on Quaynor).
It’s unlikely the Roughnecks can match the Sparkles in the middle, even with Cerra out. They’ll be hoping Gaff forgets the form he’s found in the last 3 weeks. They’ll be hoping whoever the Sparkles field in the Jordon/Ross/Graham/Boak vortex that is the midfielder #9 spot proves the wrong choice.
Both teams have high powered defences. The Roughnecks can’t afford to lose here. Breaking even with the Sparkles in this part of the ground is the bare minimum, and realistically it’s hard to see them winning the matchup without winning down back.
Where the Roughnecks have an advantage is in the ruck and up forward. Witts needs to outscore Xerri/Goldstein/McInerney. They need to win that matchup, and ideally by 20+ points.
Up forward the Sparkles have a solid collection of contributors. Guys who can all score 80+ in any given week, and lately have been. If Ward, Neal-Bullen and Langford continue their recent form, instead of their yearlong averages, then the Roughnecks stand no chance.
The Roughnecks can’t control that either way, so their forwards need to be the stars of the show. They need to put 150+ on their counterparts at the Sparkles this weekend. That is the surest path to a Roughneck victory – limit mediocrity in the middle, match it with the Sparkles defence, and blow the Sparkles forwards off the park. It’s a narrow path – it basically played out exactly that way in round 19, and the Roughnecks still lost. But it was awfully close.
