Alex puts on his predictive hat and has a crack at predicting the first 20 selections in next Saturday’s draft.
Now keeper selections are in, and the draft pool for 2024 established, I thought I’d try my hand at getting into everyone’s head and working out how the first 2 rounds of the draft will pan out. I’m no Cal Twomey (his strike rate is just incredible), but let’s see how I go.
Pick 1: Te Puke Pukekos – Harley Reid.
There is no guess work required for this pick. The best prospect ever, will be in the Eagles round 1 team, and Nelson tanked all year just to get this opportunity to draft him.
If not him – Sam Reid. Purely from a mis-click of the mouse after searching “Reid”. The choice will not be anyone else.
Pick 2: Puttanesca Chiefs – Colby McKercher.
Seen as the best pure mid in this draft class, had a great under 18 campaign that would have had him in pick 1 conversations had a bloke named Harley not been in this year’s crop. The Roos were never going to select anyone else within their 2 picks, and Mark will do the same.
If not him – Zane Duursma. Having made a comment about watching more of the Roos this year, there may be some thought in Chiefs HQ that the forward/mid could be of more value. Will hold forward status for many years, which given this year’s forward crop, is a valuable position. However, is he worth more than Colby?
Pick 3: Te Puke Pukekos – Ryley Sanders.
Sanders had a great year, racking up disposals for fun in the junior leagues, and now in moving to the Bulldogs will be looking to strut his stuff early on in the season. Having already taken a forward/mid hybrid, Nelson looks to use this pick to bring in the mid with the highest ceiling (that is still on the table) to bolster his team long term. May be susceptible to being used in weird roles (Bevo is his coach after all), but you can’t deny the talent, and the Bailey Smith injury has opened up a role within the Dogs side for round 1.
If not him – Zane Duursma. Another mid/fwd to pair with Reid to get the flexibility in this new look Pukekos squad off to a flying start.
Pick 4: Solomon’s Soldiers – Zane Duursma.
The Soldiers have a clear plan with this pick to take the best rookie prospect available, and Duursma clearly fits the bill. Scored plenty of goals with 20 touches a game in the junior comps. Being a mid/forward will offer the flexibility to get games into him early, and North are committed to playing the young players. The Soldiers aren’t rebuilding yet, but starting to think about the future wouldn’t be a bad thing for a team where the average age of the keepers is getting closer to 30.
If not him – Ryley Sanders/Colby McKercher. The Soldiers will be taking the best available rookie at this pick. This will be determined by those taken at 2 & 3, and how those above them view these rookies, but the Soldiers will be very happy with whichever of the 3 players they get.
Pick 5: Puttanesca Chiefs – Ethan Read.
This pick is with one eye to the future, but for the team that drafted Brodie Grundy in our inaugural draft, and the proud owner of Rowan Marshall now, taking a punt on a ruck with a high ceiling is natural. Touted as a Blicavs like player who has the ability to play in all areas of the ground, there is a lot of upsides to what Read will bring to the Gold Coast. Unlikely to play in 2024 with Witts still dominant and Moyle established as his back up, but a solid project in both the GC system, and whichever fantasy team want to run with him.
If not him – Connor O’Sullivan. Mark Has shown a propensity to take Geelong rookies in the past, and here’s another one available. Playing as a key defender might not have the highest ceiling of the players available, but defenders can score if the right role is opened up to them. Maybe a smoky if the preseason hype builds up.
Pick 6: Te Puke Pukekos – Caleb Windsor.
After taking Reid who can be in the forward line, Nelson commits to the youth movement with another pure mid in Windsor. Drafted to Melbourne, so maybe not opportunities right away, but with the question marks over Oliver, you never know when a spot will open up. Plays the wing which is different to most the big names on the Demons list, so a gamble here with some great mentors around the ball, could lead to a bright future.
If not him – Jed Walter. Nelson might be thinking about another forward after taking a mid and Reid who will become mid only in time, and so Walter would fit in this rookie crop nicely. Walter has some huge raps on him as the next big key forward. Like all bigs, will take time to develop, but if there’s one thing the Pukekos have, it’s time.
Pick 7: Taxmanian Devils – Dan Curtin.
Just like in real life, Dan Curtin drops out of the top 5 on the board and falls to a team eagerly awaiting him. Unlike the Crows, Max doesn’t have to trade up to make this pick, and within 10 seconds on the clock, Curtin will be taken. Might not be a high scoring defender in his first year with the Crows defensive stocks thin, however in time could easily develop into a Sicily like role with the ability to read the play and take intercept marks.
If not him – Nick Watson. Small forwards aren’t always the best scorers, however with the Hawks committed to playing youth, will be afforded plenty of opportunity. If he could run through the midfield for even 5 minutes per quarter could rack up decent scores quickly. That facet of his game remains to be seen at this time though.
Pick 8: Love Sparkles – Mason Wood.
The Sparkles are all in for another year, and with their first round pick are the team to break the trend of only rookies going in the first round. Wood is in a good system at St Kilda for fantasy points, and with the second year of Lyon’s coaching tenure (2.0), we know that he uses Wood in a fantasy friendly way.
If not him – Taylor Walker. While Greg did keep 5 forwards (1 slot to fill) to 7 mids (2 slots to fill), the lack of forward options may force his hand early. Tex is a solid scorer, and as this Crows fan feels, has one more year to have a crack at the elusive Coleman medal.
Pick 9: Defenestrators – Jake Rogers.
The Defenestrators are coming off 4 straight Grand finals, and judging by their keepers, have full intention of running it back and trying to make it 5 in a row. However, with the knowledge that top young players are hard to get once the first round of the draft is done, Paul decides to bring in one more young buck to have one eye towards the future. An academy selection for Gold Coast, may not get playing time right away with their midfield depth, however that doesn’t stop Paul from seeing the talent and shooting his shot.
If not him – Taylor Walker. I may be wrong on the rookie idea, and if that is the case, a dual premier with the Soldiers, and reigning Lance Franklin medallist would be a handy addition to this squad. In a year when the forward pool is weak, bringing in a reliable scorer for that area isn’t the worst thing a coach chasing glory could do.
Pick 10: Te Puke Pukekos – Nick Watson.
As mentioned when the Devils were considering him, small forwards don’t always score well, but at least at the Hawks he will get plenty of opportunity to show off his wares. A wizard around goals by all reports, those plus 9’s will add up quickly if the Hawks can continue their rebuild with earnest. Another example of a player that might not be great in their rookie year, but is an investment over time.
If not him – James Leake. Another big guy with plenty of potential. Touted as the “Mr Fix it” of the draft board as he’s got the big body to play any position on the ground. Might not have opportunity early in a team that made the prelim last year, but over time could well settle into a role that provides great scoring.
Pick 11: Solomon’s Soldiers – Lachie Weller.
Coming off an ACL will not play the first half of the year. However the Soldiers don’t mind that as they have a deep enough squad to hold him and be right up there all year, and Weller coming in prior to finals will just give them the extra edge in defence. A risk to take someone off a serious injury, but a high upside one coach Alex is happy taking.
Pick 12: Puttanesca Chiefs– Shaun Mannagh
If Mark did indeed pass on O’Sullivan at pick 5, I don’t think there’s a way he passes on a Cat again at this stage. It could still be O’Sullivan, but another name that needs to be mentioned here is Mannagh. A strong performer for a number of years in the VFL, has finally got his chance at AFL level, and with the mature body could be the next Michael Barlow and come into AFL fantasy with immediate impact.
Pick 13: Threat Level Midnight – Jed Walter.
Somehow, he slides to 13, and Rowan with his first pick in the draft is keen to get on the Walter bandwagon. A key forward who could be anything in 3-5 years, Rowan is buckling in to get ready for the journey with him.
Pick 14: MaherShalalHashBaz – Connor Budarick.
For the second time in league history, Jordan takes Budarick in the second round of the draft. Taken originally in 2020, but fizzled out since, he is a player that has made a slow rise in his performance each year. While not needing to go exclusively young this year, Jordan still likes the opportunity to get a youngish player in, and being a defender fills a position of need.
Pick 15: Puttanesca Chiefs – Darcy Wilson.
The Chiefs use their 4th pick in the draft to hit the rookie well one last time, finding Wilson still lingering around waiting for a home. Some genuine X factor about him, but how it translates to the fantasy world we will have to wait and see. Ross Lyon seems keen to play some youngsters, so may get some good early opportunity.
Pick 16: Lethal Vipers – Mark Blicavs.
The Vipers finally get to enter the draft at pick 16, and head straight for the guy that can fill multiple roles as required for them. Having only kept 5 pure mids, Blicavs can slot straight into the round 1 midfield to give this team those ultra consistent points. Having Darcy as a ruck also means the DPP status of Blicavs will be useful, as Darcy has yet to play a full 23 game season in his career.
Pick 17: Taxmanian Devils – Luke Parker.
The Devils have got their rookie for the year in the first round and are now keen to bring in some points. Luke Parker has been an elite scorer in this league since we began in 2016, and this is the first year we find him in the draft pool. Max sees the injury to Mills and how that could mean extra points for Parker, and snatches him right up to boost a midfield already getting scary with the Port big 3, plus Patty Cripps.
Pick 18: Love Sparkles – Beau McCreery.
There’s always a handful of players that have been in the system for a few years, but never hit great heights. And then, the preseason hype train leaves the station. In this case, it’s McCreery having a big preseason and having many mentions of playing meaningful midfield minutes this year. Greg sees this, sees his forward line, and decides to take the punt that last year’s 51 average is a thing of the past and its big scores ahead.
Pick 19: Defenestrators – Zac Williams.
Similar to the Soldiers pick of Weller, Paul sees the injured player coming back from surgery, and sees him fitting into the side to give the Defenestrators defence a real shot in the arm. By all reports will be fit for round 1, it will just be what percentage of his former self we see, and how he goes in Michael Voss’ system.
Pick 20: Solomon’s Soldiers – Cam Rayner.
In a list move that I found shocking, Cam Rayner was cut this offseason. A long fall from grace for the 2017 AFL number 1 pick, but sure enough his fantasy performances have not been up to scratch in the 6 years to date (especially when you compare him to Andrew Brayshaw who was number 2 in that draft). The Soldiers like his age and are willing to take the punt on him hopefully having a 7th year breakout, so they pick him up.
Pick 25: Roughnecks – Lachie Hunter.
I couldn’t finish the phantom off without having Adam’s first pick acknowledged as well. Having waited until half way through the 3rd round for a pick, Adam is resigned to not getting a rookie, and instead grabs the best averaging mid available at this slot. With a young team, the success of the Roughnecks will come more from internal growth than who they draft, but ready made points are still valuable, and so straight into the starting 22 goes Hunter.