Inspired by some of the great analysis done pre-draft around the average age and scoring power of each list, I wanted to revisit this and have a look at what impact (if any) draft night might have had.
In particular, there were 2 factors that really piqued my interest:
- If we were to redo Adam’s pre-draft graph, what kind of shift would we see in each list?
- Would the results of the above in line with our expectations of each team this year?
Two very simple questions lead me on a journey through the data, which brought some very interesting insights. I hope you get a bit out of them as well.
Terminology
Before I start throwing numbers at you, let me first set the stage.
Question 1 is simply looking at the data. Easy.
To answer Question 2, we need to set some expectations. As such, I’ve divided the 10 lists into 4 separate categories – this is how I see the state of play at the start of this year and have based expectations on these assumptions. Jump into my mind below:
Group 1 – “The Rebuilders”
Adam mentioned at the end of the draft that there were 2 teams missing finals – and I don’t disagree.
The Pukekos and the Chiefs make up this group. These teams are currently throwing mud against the wall and seeing what sticks.
I was expecting to see plenty of talent under 21 and not much over 30 – a south-west shift on the graph.
Group 2 – “The New Arrivals”
At the start of 2023, there were three teams with serious question marks above their heads. By the end of the season, this was no longer the case.
The rebuild finally came together with varying degrees of success for TLM, the Devils and MSHB. Some finals football was played, and some seasoned heads started to look over their shoulders. 2024 should bring more of the same.
For this group, while some variation was always likely, I was expecting to see each team add some missing puzzle pieces in the 22-28yo age bracket – moving them north-east on the graph.
Group 3 – “The Contenders”
This group has been around the mark for years and should be again. It feels weird putting them in a group together – their lists are so diverse. Arguments could be made that some compare more naturally with group 2 or even group 4, but I’ve committed to this method now, and there’s no going back.
If I was in this group, there would only be one thing on my mind. Boosting output. As such, I’m expecting to see them move north. I have no idea what we’ll see on the x axis.
Group 4 – “The Champ”
It’s a poor usage of grammar. This isn’t a group, it’s an individual. As Lisa Simpson once asked her brother, “What’s the sound of one hand clapping?”
Alex is in a league of his own this year and needs to be looked at separately.
Similar to Group 3, I’m expecting to see Alex either push his graph north (or at least maintain position) – but I think we’re going to see a completely different beast to anything else we’ve analysed.
Analysis
With the definitions done, let’s have a look at the chart. For clarification, I am plotting:
- The average of the top 22 scorers for each team, but;
- The average age of the entire list.
This essentially excludes development players from the score component (we don’t usually field them anyway) but considers them relevant when looking at the age profile of the list.
New players have been excluded, except for the following added back:
- Reid – Pukekos (Estimate of 85)
- McKercher – Chiefs (Estimate of 80)
- Sanders – Pukekos (Estimate of 80)
Rather surprisingly, all teams except two were able to shift their data point to the north-west, increasing the output from the starting 22, and reducing the age of their list. This is likely thanks to my methodology, in excluding the bottom 18 scorers from the average. Some movements were more protracted than others:
- Nelson was able to drop his average age by over 2 years, while still putting up a higher average. This is a phenomenon known as the “Law of Reid”.
- Jordan also nearly dropped his average age by more than two years for a marginal uplift (a LOT more on this later).
- Paul was the coach most successful in boosting output, increasing his average points by 5.
The exceptions, of course, are always the interesting ones. I’ll move from least to most interesting:
- For Alex, at the end of the day, it’s hard to improve on what he’s already got. He gets some younger chargers and doesn’t lose too much in terms of output. I’d call that a win.
- Max’s draft strategy is on clear display. He boosted output, with age not troubling him. That’s not to say his list aged significantly – far from it.
So how good were my estimates? I’d say they were adequate.
The Rebuilders drop the age of their lists, however, increase potential scoring against expectation.
The New Arrivals are a mixed bag. Max proves expectation correct, boosting output and growing a little older, while Rowan manages to copy the rebuilders.
The Contenders all move north on the chart, with Paul the most successful here.
The Champ maintains position, but the additions of Duursma and Caddy help ease some of the pressure of that ageing list.
Extra Analysis
So, we’ve answered the questions, but in doing so, I now have a whole heap of data available with which to go a bit deeper. You can never overquote the Simpson’s, so I mean it when I say, “We’re taking this to strange new places.”
Age of lists
We learned it at school – there’s more than one way to measure an “average”. And when we’re looking at the age profile of a team, the median and mode are just as significant as the mean.
Let’s have a look at each of the four group holistically, and see if we can’t just find a couple of nuggets:
Same strategy, slightly different approach. Best thing about this part of the review is that I barely have to guess intentions when I’m one of the coaches.
Simply put, the Chiefs don’t like losing. Even when Harley Reid is coming up in the next years’ draft, tanking is a hard pill to swallow. Nelson, on the other hand, will sacrifice some short-term pride for faster longer-term success:
- 10 eighteen year-olds feature on this list, compared with the Chiefs 4.
- Nelson also doesn’t have a player older than twenty-seven. The Chiefs have 8.
Long story short, the Pukekos will likely fare worse than the Chiefs this year, but the net is cast wider. On a law of averages, they get 2 quality performers for every 1 that the Chiefs nab.
Before we start, can I just say Max, what a beautiful looking bell curve that is. Trust the accountant to churn that one out unintentionally.
I said at the start that some variation was likely within this group – and you better believe it. Three different teams, with 3 different lists, trying three different strategies. This is what Dangergawn football is all about.
I’ll analyse each coach separately here:
- Jordan puts ‘The Rebuilders’ to shame with that effort up front. 18 kids under twenty sit on this list. The rest pretty much sit in the sweet spot with 14 players between twenty-five and twenty-eight. This tells me something – Jordan could be dangerous when he gets his best 22 out on the park, but depth is severely lacking. I feel like we’ve seen this before??
- At the risk of gushing further on Max, this list is now primed. 19 players in their peak, 9 at breakout age, 6 seasoned heads, and virtually nothing at the extremes. I’m excited to see what happens here if the 25-28 year-olds up their production and some of those breakouts take it to the next level.
- Rowan is basically Max, but a year or two behind. He’s got five 21 year-olds on the list, which is equalled only by Nelson. If this really is Alex’s last year at the top, Rowan arguably has timed his run to perfection. He takes his pick of keepers at the end of 2024, then hopefully picks up some top end talent either through trading or the draft – then with the champ out of the way, anything can happen.
The more I look at this chart, the more I get out of it. There are some weird and wonderful things happening here.
Firstly, there is a clear correlation between the Vipers, Sparkles and Defenestrators – but that hump in the middle is like comparing Everest with Lofty.
Nathan and Greg have the aforementioned ‘Max Graph’ – lists stocked with that prime talent. The real point of difference with Max, however, is that they tend to favour those 31 and over, providing a bit of a ‘kick’ on the right-hand side of the chart. Those guys tend to be good performers, but not as reliable as they were a few years ago. Success depends on how often these guys get on the park, and how quickly they slow down as the year progresses.
Paul has the same profile too, but it’s much flatter. It likely explains why his average score is lower than his peers – he just doesn’t have enough volume in that 25-28 year-old bracket. With 14 players at least 29 year of age, he sits second only to Alex. It appears a list refresh is soon needed.
And then we have Adam. Seriously, what is going on here? This is the part of the chart that makes me question my whole methodology.
He looks nothing like his Group 3 companions. But if you compare him with Group 2, he doesn’t look like that either.
So let’s throw him against Group 1 and see what happens:
There’s been some not-so-subtle list management going on here. We did see it on the pre-draft chart – he was the third youngest team in the comp. He’s now the equal 4th youngest team. Equivalent to my Chiefs, but absolutely blowing me out of the water on average score – possibly due to 3 gun players he recently acquired in that 29-30 age bracket…
He doesn’t quite fit with the other rebuilders, but some correlation is there – simply a bit flatter at the front end, and a bit higher at the back.
But, this does beg the question – what is his game plan here? Is he attempting the cheeky Chris Scott strategy where he bloods young players while attempting to win premierships at the same time? Or has he parked the bus and in the middle of a transition already?
My gut feel is that he doesn’t quite have the cattle to do it this year. But does that even matter when it appears he’s ready to give it another go in 3 years’ time?
If he does decide to pivot… do we see another Laird, Macrae and Whitfield trade to a Group 3 team in 2024?
Last, but certainly not least, is the reigning premier. It’s like when you tune in to watch the Tour de France, and you see some bloke out there pedalling by himself, 17 minutes in front of the peloton.
As you’d expect, his list profile is different to everyone else. Nearly 70% of his list is 25 or older, and they are all putting up big scores. He doesn’t have to start completely from scratch however – some shrewd movements late in 2023 and in this years’ draft leave him with a small core from which to launch his future aspirations, when he eventually puts the cue in the rack.
Conclusions
Obviously, age isn’t everything. Just because a player is 25-28 doesn’t mean they are scoring well. But generalisations are often useful. An so it’s on this basis that I make this very preliminary forecast.
I think the make-up of these four groups will be dramatically different come this time next year.
‘The Rebuilders’
- Alex wins it again this year, then has a fire sale. His graph doesn’t look like this years’ rebuilders, rather there’s a lot at the front end, nothing in the middle, and a lot at the back that he either couldn’t trade away or delist.
- Paul can no longer sustain his position, and heads back to the drawing board. His graph looks like the rebuilder graphs we’ve seen this year.
- I’m still there. My refusal to do what Nelson has done puts me behind. I think my age graph looks the same as this year, but perhaps I’ve moved further north on the scoring chart.
‘The New Arrivals’
- Nelson’s breakout players complement Tim English this year, and suddenly he’s in this space. His age profile begins to shape up like Rowans, filled with potential and a few years away from being back at his best.
- Jordan is still here, but looks different to what we’ve seen above. His chart shifts ‘right’ along the x axis and starts looking like what Adam’s got right now.
‘The Contenders’
- Adam remains here. His chart is looking a bit more like a standard Group 3 chart, but is more front loaded. He retains the ability to pivot or go for it, depending on circumstance.
- Rowan moves up to official contender, and is probably only a few good list adjustments away from moving up another level. My vote for the best looking graph next year.
‘The Champ(s)’
- Nathan and Greg are a mirror image of one another, and currently sit in the box seat to take over post Alex. They hang onto those ageing lists in an effort to win it all, giving them that flat profile we’ve seen in Alex’s list this year.
- Darkhorse call incoming: Max skips ‘The Contenders’ and comes straight up into this group. A couple of good adds through trading or the draft put him where Nathan and Greg are today plus some more. We’ll see him and Rowan duking it out in 2026.
Note: This article was written, and written well, by Mark