The fourth placed Roughnecks have kept their finals streak alive, and the reward is a tasty encounter with MaherShalalHashBaz, who return to the finals fold after a brief dalliance with the foot of the ladder.
Neither side has tasted a finals victory in a while. The Roughnecks last won a final in 2021 against the Lethal Vipers. MaherShalalHashBaz haven’t won a final since they won the flag in 2019. Who was that win against again….
MILESTONES
150 games
- Scott Pendlebury (Roughnecks)
FORM GUIDE
This sums things up nicely. The Roughnecks have reached higher highs than MaherShalalHashBaz since the byes. They’ve also had lower lows.
MaherShalalHashBaz haven’t fallen below the 1800 barrier since round 17. So we can be reasonably confident of their floor heading into this final. The question is what version of the Roughnecks will we see.
The form guide may also offer a clue on that front as well. Take a closer look at the Roughnecks scores since the byes.
Scores against teams in the bottom half of the ladder:
- 2016 in Round 16 WIN against Threat Level Midnight (7th)
- 1851 in Round 19 WIN against Solomon’s Soldiers (9th)
- 1962 in Round 21 WIN against Puttanesca Chiefs (6th)
Scores against teams in the top half:
- 1755 in Round 18 LOSS to Taxmanian Devils (1st)
- 1728 in Round 20 LOSS to Love Sparkles (2nd)
- 1817 to Round 21 LOSS to Defenestrators (3rd)
The Roughnecks have themselves a front-runner problem. They’re basically Port Adelaide. Which I suppose makes me Ken Hinkley. What a bleak, miserable exercise this has turned into…
Bodes well for MaherShalalHashBaz I say!
Last time they met…
Was back during the byes in round 13. The Roughnecks won a high scoring encounter by 191 points.
Alex Sexton and Josh Daicos both scored 130 for MSHB. But luckily for the Roughnecks Sam Flanders responded with a 160 of his own. And you know you’re on a heater when you get a very handy 111 from Luke Nankervis. The Roughnecks would love a repeat this weekend.
This has been a tight matchup historically, with the Roughnecks just edging the ledger with 10 wins to 8. But there’s an interesting trend when it comes to margins under 50:
- Round 5 2016: MSHB won by 1 point
- Round 10 2017: MSHB won by 12 points
- Grand Final 2019: MSHB won by 15 points
- Round 4 2024: MSHB won by 38 points
When the Roughnecks win, it’s nearly always been by 100+ points. If it’s tight, it’s literally only ever gone one way between these two.
Path to Victory
This has the makings of a tightly contested final. The difference will likely come down to two factors:
- Whose area of strength can provide the greatest edge
- Whose stars shine brightest (or avoid failure)
Of course, all games basically come down to that. May as well say it will come down to which team scores more. But these two teams are particularly interesting given the areas of strength are at two different ends of the fantasy field.
These two teams have the two best forwards in the game – Zorko for MaherShalalHashBaz, and Flanders for the Roughnecks. But the other five spots on this part of the field definitely leans toward the team in blue and orange. Daniher is another All-Australian forward, and Cameron, Curnow and Darcy are all capable of going big.
For the Roughnecks, the forwards not named Flanders tend to go big by exception. It’s a young group, and young groups are particularly prone to fluctuation. MaherShalalHashBaz would expect to win this line – and will likely be in trouble if they don’t.
Down back is where the Roughnecks have an advantage. Whitfield has been in scorching hot form, and Wanganeen-Milera has a higher average than the best defender for MaherShalalHashBaz (Houston). Yeo, Sicily and Richards help flesh out what is a pretty stacked line for the Roughnecks. They need to win this 6v6 group, and they need to win it well.
In the middle of the park MSHB have the superior firepower in Dunkley and Merrett. But the Roughnecks arguably bat deeper. These lines should be reasonably even – and it will spell danger if it isn’t.
Can the Roughnecks advantage down back prove bigger than the advantage MaherShalalHashBaz has up forward? And can each side’s premiums maintain their average? Last weekend Flanders delivered a stinker for the Roughnecks. It’s hard to win if you don’t get those premium scores from your premiums. With both sides looking for their first final win in years, pressure will be high.