Analysis by Jordie
Roughnecks
What Were They Doing?
The Roughnecks must really like their keepers. As I try to get into Coach Adam’s head, I propose his thinking was this “my 20 keepers will win me the 2025 premiership, so these 20 selections can win me the 2030 premiership”. Yes, Adam skewed quite young for someone in premiership contention. But consider this the high-risk, high-reward approach to finishing a list. All Adam needs for this to be a successful draft is a huge uptick for a small number of players – the rest are depth anyway. Plus, if a few have a little bit of uptick, they’ll be handy as bench options. Think back to the selection of a young Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera in the sixth round two years back. One or two of those in this draft, and Adam’s happy as Larry.
First Pick
Throughout the Soldiers crazy fire sale, the Roughnecks held onto their first-round pick, enabling them to take one of 2025’s precious rookies. At pick 6, there were plenty of good options available. Xavier Lindsay is certainly one of them and was taken by Coach Adam. The next three picks were probably the other tempters – Tobie Travaglia, Josh Smillie and Finn O’Sullivan. All appealing. I quite like the pick of Lindsay though. He has great round 1 chances and looks a star (though we could say the same of the others too).
He Likes This Guy
Adam had to wait a while to bring someone in after Xavier Lindsay. His next selection after pick 6 was pick 33. And with that pick he selected Mitch Owens. Not the player I had in mind. I’ve seen Owens at his best – he scored a game-winning hundred against me two years ago that’s a little more embedded in my brain than it should be. But I also saw Owens last year, and he was awful. Truly stinky. I was too scared to go near him this draft. Perhaps Adam was blinded by the “go home” factor, but then again, Owens could have a good year and put the misery of 2024 behind him.
Tasty Slider
The Roughnecks really didn’t have lots of picks early. At pick 76, which was his third selection after Lindsay and Owens, Coach Adam picked Jack Lukosius. I like this pick. Lukosius is still young, and I can see him in a role where he is generally forward but roaming around a bit. Such a role would make him a more than worthy starter in any forward line (even one with Bailey Smith and Jack Macrae). The other thing I like about the pick is the fact that every year, an ex-sun goes really well at a new club. Elijah Hollands. Will Brodie. Peter Wright. Jarrod Lyons. Betting on people that get out of the Gold Coast black hole seems a good strategy. (Get on Rory Atkins while you can everyone).
Coming Home
I mentioned Mitch Owens earlier. I actually think coming home was a big factor here. Adam has been doing a lot of retooling and investing in draftees lately. But to have to cut so many of them, and then to see names like Ben Hobbs and Bailey Humphrey go to other clubs before this pick must have hurt. I think Adam couldn’t take any more pain and decided to keep investing in at least one of his projects. In a similar way, Luke Nankervis returned, but at a later stage in the draft. It’s a move I like, but that’s because I’m drawn to Nankervises. Lastly, Adam welcomed back club stalwart Jaeger O’Meara to the Roughnecks. Jaeger has had a large absence, but he is third on the club leaderboard for games played. If he adds to that, it’s a feather in his cap and the cap of his coach.
Piqued My Interest
Judging exclusively by the draft, Adam was a big fan of Port Adelaide’s off-season where there were some minor subtractions, but the addition of Jack Lukosius and Joe Richards. Jack and Joe join the Roughnecks as well as the power and now I’m really hoping Adam recruits Rory Atkins just to round it all off.
MaherShalalHashBaz
What were they doing?
MSHB simply went with the best available player at each pick. The plan was simple. The blueprint was sound. The Taxmanian Devils and the Love Sparkles did this last year with their drafts. They played in a grand final. Sometimes, it is that simple.
First Pick
At pick 17, there was still a high-quality rookie available in Leo Lombard. This was unexpected, and the draft almost went a very different direction for MaherShalalHashBaz. But in the end, staring down the barrel of the Devils snaring Luke Parker and Matt Kennedy, the team went with solid-as-they-come midfielder Jack Crisp and the rest of the draft followed suit.
He Likes This Guy
This is a hard one for me. I like all my guys! Jake Stringer is probably the dodgiest pick. Based on last year’s draft, he’s the 400th best player. I took him in the ninth round. My hope is that like Jesse Hogan before him, GWS can bring out the best. If Stringer is at his best, this is a great pick. If he is anything but his best, this pick is bad.
Tasty Slider
Elliot Yeo’s availability at 37 did surprise me. He was in consideration for me at pick 27 and serious consideration (a full minute of deliberation) at pick 30. The reasons for the slide are clear – he’s injured and injury prone, not to mention old now. But people that can average 90 should not be available in the fourth round. A run of games towards the back end of the year at or near last year’s average would be tasty indeed.
Coming Home
Reilly O’Brien was on the keeper’s list until 2 days before the deadline. It was nice to bring him back after filling out my positions with my first two picks. Travis Boak played three games for me last year as a very late addition and returns as the veteran to guide the veterans who guide the rest. Blake Harwick and Nick Haynes played for me lots in 2023. Judd McVee has also been on my list before and tries to break through this year. I love getting old faces back.
Piqued My Interest
They say age is just a number. My draft would indicate I agree. Eight of my first twelve picks were players aged 30 or older. Even the one 2024 draftee selected – Riley Bice – was a mature ager at 24 years old. Time will tell if these old-timers provide valuable points or just predictable calf injuries.
Defenestrators
What Were They Doing?
I’d describe the draft of the Defenestrators with two words. One is classic. The other is opportunistic. This was a classic Paul draft in that it followed a pattern we’ve seen from him before. Select a rookie in the first round and then go win-now players after that, with maybe the odd flyer. This strategy has yielded young talent like Sam Walsh, Elijah Hollands and Reuben Ginbey, whilst still maintaining a finals-bound list year after year. In picking a rookie first (Josh Smillie) and then win-now players later like Patrick Dangerfield and Jarrod Witts, Paul has proceeded as he normally does and it’s fair to say, looking at the leagues nine-year history, that this is working for him.
But I also say that he exhibited an opportunistic streak. The first time he showed himself to be opportunistic was in selecting Leo Lombard at 18. Generally, Paul would be into win-now mode with his picks by this point. But he was happy to depart form the general plan to take an incredible opportunity presented to him (so, the opposite of me). Then, another opportunity named Alex Bridge came along, and Paul jumped at the opportunity to trade Lombard for Hopper and a future first. Shrewd move. Opportunistic. When another opportunity to trade into next years draft came, it became unsurprising that Paul went with it. You can have plans, but you need to seize key moments. It feels like Coach Paul did this.
First Pick
Paul maintained his first-round pick (actually, all his picks) and he used it to select Josh Smillie. He is highly rated, was a chance for the AFL number one pick for months and you know that Richmond will prioritise his development. This might just be the best player Paul has taken in the first round since Sam Walsh.
He Likes This Guy
Hunter Clark at 38 feels high. He’s been a tease all his life, throwing out just enough good games to make the constant injuries and occasional spud games seem forgivable. The Defenestrators clearly feel that the worst could be behind him and the inconsistency could become consistency. I’ll acknowledge there’s uncertainty around the midfield line-up of the saints, but I reckon there’s more certainty about what you will get (or not get) with Clark.
Tasty Slider
Leo Lombard not being taken in the top 13 was surprising to me. I could foresee him missing out top ten, as he had awesome competition, even if he was in my top ten rookies. But he was right there for the taking for the Pukekos, the Devils, the Vipers, the Chiefs, the Sparkles and MSHB. All chose to leave him alone. Him slipping to 18 is certainly a slide and the amount Alex was willing to give up in a trade for him indicates that Lombard would have been at home in the first round.
Coming Home
Tom Mitchell, selected by the Defenestrators in the first round of the inaugural draft will not be playing football anywhere else. I think we’re all happy about this. The two-time Dangergawn medallist is the all-time leading scorer for the team in pink and it’d be nice for him to add to that tally. At pick 138, you can hardly call it a risk. Taylor Walker has also famously played for (and against!) the Defenestrators and his arrival late is a welcome return.
Piqued My Interest
Paul picked up both Bailey Williamses. And I actually thought both were good picks (and not just because it’s cool to unite them), Bailey Williams from the dogs is one of those handy guys to have on your list to round out your midfield, and his premiership medallion from last year is proof enough of that. A good get at pick 58. Bailey Williams from the eagles is a handy player to have if you want a back-up ruck that should at least be on the park. For pick 148. Great job.
Taxmanian Devils
What Were They Doing?
Back to the well. They loaded up in 2024 and almost broke through for a maiden premiership. They went hard for win-now players again, including some of the same players as last year. The end result is another good-looking list that bats deep.
First Pick
Luke Parker at pick 12 was the first pick for the Taxmanian Devils, who shrewdly gained an extra pick by sliding from pick 9 to pick 12. You’d have to think they got their guy despite that small slide. Luke Parker should be an awesome forward this year. Besides last year, he has never averaged below 90. Absolutely one of the best win-now players in the draft. And the other best win-now player in this draft was Matt Kennedy, and the Devils grabbed him two picks later.
He Likes This Guy
Tom Gross at pick 69 is…well…if not gross than close to gross. Sure, he’s a young guy at the eagles. But so is Clay Hall who went undrafted. Of course, things could go Gross’ way and there are a bunch of injuries that have to be covered. But I wouldn’t have been taking him before the tenth round.
Tasty Slider
Oscar McInerney at pick 34 was great value. This was the pick Coach Max gained from the Soldiers for slipping from pick 9 to pick 12 and I’d argue he’s gotten maximum bang for buck. The Big O is consistent and will score about 80 a game with the odd big game to boot. As a back-up ruck or utility option, he’s a great guy to have on your list.
Coming Home
First selection Luke Parker played three games for the Devils last year, though he only averaged 55.3 points per game. He’ll do better this time round. Second selection Matt Kennedy has been a mainstay for the Taxmanian Devils for years now. Third selection Conor Idun was a consistent defender for Max last year. So those three second round picks all brought home-grown quality talent back to the sheds and this team is going to take some beating. Just for fun, Adam Saad joined the reunion later on at pick 99.
Piqued My Interest
Connor Rozee. Patrick Cripps. Zak Butters. George Hewett. Jason Horne-Francis. Harry McKay. What do they all have in common? Well, they are all Port and Carlton players that star for the Devils. And wouldn’t you know it, Port and Carlton have a bye in the same week this year (again!). Round 12. The complication for Max is that the kangaroos and the bulldogs have that same bye round. So, his first two draft selections, and 5 further selections from this draft will add to his headache of fielding a team for that week.
Love Sparkles
What Were They Doing?
It’s Friday night and I’m spending it at Dad’s place. We have one of those Freaky Friday moments where we begin to inhabit each other’s bodies. This explains my picking of old guys when I’ve gone exclusively young for three years. This also explains the Love Sparkles taking gamble after gamble on young talent all the way through the draft. It’s just shocking that this club, which more than any other club in our history has prioritised best available talent, even in the first round, would come out with a draft like this. But they won the premiership so they can do as they like. Was it a shrewd rebuild-on-the-fly? Or was it like Jerry Krause’s handling of Michael Jordan? Fascinated to see it play out.
In fairness, there were some older players picked too. Just the fact that more than one punt was taken by the SPARKLES is very surprising.
First Pick
At pick 16, if you had said Dad had taken the highly touted sun, I’d assume it was Leo Lombard. Instead, Lachie Weller was picked. In need of defenders after the loss of DPP for Nick Daicos and Isaac Cumming, Coach Greg simply picked the best available defender in his eyes. And with best seasons of mid-80s in the past and a knee injury well behind him now, the rationale certainly stacks up. But he will watch Lombard keenly to see if the move was optimal (as indeed will half the league that passed on Lombard).
He Likes This Guy
The very next pick was Connor Budarick at pick 19. This surprised me. I worry Budarick will be the unlucky omission after Rioli’s arrival at the Gold Coast. Sure, Budarick was an underage fantasy star. But he’s 23 and hasn’t even played 10 games in a season for the last four seasons. A huge risk for the Sparkles.
Tasty Slider
There were a few sliders I think the Love Sparkles pounced on. Marcus Windhager at 40 is a good get, and so is Wayne Milera at 130. But Zac Fisher at 50 is fantastic value. Sure, Caleb Daniel is now at the roos. But there are two half back flanks on a football ground. Zac Fisher seems far too good a player to be out of the 22, especially since North don’t own their own first-rounder. I think Zac will be around the same mark as last year, or maybe a tad below. If so, that’s a tasty slider indeed.
Coming Home
This draft saw a huge number of new faces find a locker in the clubrooms. But good old Zac Williams returned for one more ride. At some point someone might say “never again,” but at pick 142, it’s worth a reunion. Josh Fahey spent some time on the list last year and will hope to break through for a debut game soon. Nick Larkey has also trotted out for the Sparkles a few times as well and enjoys a list spot again. As noted on draft night, Ted Clohesy gets to join his brother in their bid for the first set of brothers to win an Ultimate Footy premiership together.
Piqued My Interest
I actually found Coach Greg’s entire draft interesting, with all sorts of names that weren’t on my radar being gleefully snaffled. The other interesting thing is that 3 Zacs were picked – Fisher, Taylor, and Williams.