With the bye rounds coming to an end this week our eyes are firmly fixed on the road ahead; some to ensure our team is prepared for finals, some for the immediate boost to secure that place in the finals and some to ensure their future looks bright for next season and the seasons beyond.

While we know that past results are not a reliable indicator of future performance; like all good superannuation companies, I’ll try to convince you it is anyway. What I bring before you today is a prediction of what the ladder will look like if the past plays out over the remaining 7 rounds.

I’ve compared each teams average verses the average of the team they are to play to determine a win/loss for each remaining round. I’ve also found some interesting insights by taking the combined average score of each opponent still to be played. This painted a picture of who has the wind behind their sails and who has more pain to come:

WINNERS

1.       General Soreness

Average opposition scores: 1813; Predicted wins: 5

They have been labelled the flat track bullies, and they won’t get much chance to shake that tag, having the easiest run of all to the finals, playing only one of the top 3 teams. Their average opposition scores are 1813, which is 35 points below the league average. However, this advantage has them predicted to jump 2 spots on the ladder to secure an inaugural finals birth.

2.       Bailout Plan

Average opposition scores: 1829; Predicted wins: 2

They have had many victories snatched from their grasp and ultimately been beat down both with injuries and form, but if this team does have a bailout plan, it may prove successful, with calmer seas predicted ahead. With neither of the two highest averaging teams to come and if Luke can turn some of his near misses into wins, he could be a sneaky chance for the finals. However, the prediction is 2 more wins to claw back a bit of team pride.

3.       Champs 16

Average opposition scores: 1856; Predicted wins: 5

The most interesting team in my view is the reigning champions, who are projecting to face quite a tough challenge, with the 3^rd highest average opponent scores from here on in. However their strong form projects them to claim an admirable 5 wins from 7 matches. It’s projecting to be back-to-back first week finals breaks, but could it be back-to-back premiership trophies too?

LOSERS

1.       Soloman’s Soldiers

Average opposition scores: 1865; Predicted wins: 0

The soldiers will be soldiering on in the second half, with the worst yet to come. They are projected to need to average 260 points more in the second half of the season, than they did in the first, to overcome their opponents. Sometimes it’s unfortunate that you can’t play yourself, but as we’re all aware, the Soldiers have more long term goals, and will be happy to bank the draft picks.

2.       MaherShalalHashBaz

Average opposition scores: 1853; Predicted wins: 2

The 2016 minor premiers have battled manfully all year with a continued run of injuries and form holding them back from the lofty heights of last year. Two wins on the trot may buck their projected trend, but the raw numbers suggest they will have a tough run home with only 2 wins expected. But most importantly is that if the script is followed, it would mean they become the unlucky team to sit one spot out of the finals. It looms as a telling 7 weeks for the MSHB!

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