The 2018 Grand Final is here.
The rampaging, all conquering Defenestrators have finally broken through the preliminary final barrier and stand a mere week away from glory long denied.
*check notes*
oh…
Turns out the Defenestrators are off scouting under-18 prospects. In their stead, the similarly rampaging Puttanesca Chiefs look to become the first side to win the flag two years running.
Rico’s Roughnecks await them. After narrowly avoiding heartbreak in a third successive preliminary final, the Roughnecks find themselves celebrating their breakthrough while being raised on a platform in the Tyrannosaur paddock.
But will they be devoured, the only remnant being a bloody limb on the window of a green 1992 Ford Explorer? Or will they be able deftly manoeuvre and achieve an almighty upset.
What coach Ritchie hopes coach Buscumb is saying at around 7pm on Sunday
Lets take a look at the lists and the form and see what might await us this weekend.
Previous Matchups
Round 3: Rico’s Roughnecks defeated Puttanesca Chiefs, 1806 v 1727 (BOX SCORE)
Round 15: Puttanesca Chiefs defeated Rico’s Roughnecks, 1922 v 1770 (BOX SCORE)
Here lies some hope for the Roughnecks – they’ve done it once already this season. Martin outscored Grundy by 36 points that week… and Grundy scored 141. Martin was joined by only two other centurions (Hunter, Dunstan), and were able to triumph despite a paltry 19 from Hewett.
But it seems unlikely the Roughnecks can emerge victorious again this weekend with only three players reaching triple figures. A score of 1806 is unlikely to pass muster.
Round 15 took place much more recently, and the main difference that weekend was the lack of bad scores from the Chiefs. Their Round 3 squad had 3 scores in the 40s (Taylor, Lester and Florent, who finds himself in the blue white and gold this weekend). Round 15 featured no such scores (Mackay dragged the chain with 51). The Roughnecks had half their team score 70 or under in that match-up – something that is incompatible with victory (unless you are playing the Bailout Plan).
2018 Playing Lists
The list comparison doesn’t make for pretty reading for the Roughnecks. Or the rest of the competition really.
The Chiefs have 6 players averaging over 100 points per game in season 2018, including two over 120. The Roughnecks have four, and the leader, Adam Treloar, is almost certainly unavailable this week, and another, Stefan Martin, is averaging 89 in the past five.
Entire List: Puttanesca Chiefs
Entire List: Rico’s Roughnecks
The one area the Roughnecks may have an advantage is depth. The Chiefs have several players who have featured in more than half a dozen games with averages below 70.
The Roughnecks are a little stronger here, though names like Hannebery, Newman and Burton featuring here are symptomatic of bigger issues than “solid depth”.
The Potential Line-ups
It’s hard to predict who will line-up where this weekend – which is saying something, given I’m coaching one of the teams.
But we can have a guestimate based on the squads that fronted during the Preliminary Finals.
Defence
Chiefs
Roughnecks
These are lines missing stars. Witherden and Docherty for the Chiefs, Blakely for the Roughnecks. Seasoned veteran Brendon Goddard was dropped for the Preliminary Final for debutant James Aish, and it remains to be seen if he can force his way back in for what may be the last game of his career.
Ryan Burton may make way for Adam Tomlinson, who pressed his claim with a 102 from the bench last week.
For the Chiefs it seems there are two questions looming. Does Gunston feature down back, or up forward? And does Cameron Guthrie take the final spot down back? Coach Buscumb is no doubt loathe to feature him in the 22, but Witherden’s injury may force his hand.
Midfield
Chiefs
Roughnecks
The Roughnecks are hopelessly outgunned here. All their players are capable of big scores (sans Hanners), but they don’t do it nearly as consistently as those wearing the orange and white hoops.
Treloar’s injury and Dunstan’s omission forced the Roughnecks to recall Dan Hannebery last week, which two years ago wouldn’t have made you despair as it does in August 2018.
This is where the game will most likely be won. If the Roughnecks can stay within 100 points of the Chiefs’ midfield, then they may have a shot of making up that ground elsewhere. The presence of Hannebery and Langford are big question marks in the pursuit of that aim.
Ruck, Forward and Utility
Chiefs
Roughnecks
Setting aside the Rucks for a moment, where the Chiefs again have a 20-point advantage, the forwards are the only line on the field where you can argue the Roughnecks have an advantage.
Lambert is missing, but Smith is the leading forward in the land. Wingard oscillates between brilliant and mediocrity, as do Christensen and Neal-Bullen. Each of these players have scored triple figures this season, and coach Ritchie will be hoping the planets align this week.
We said earlier the Roughnecks may have the advantage here, but the recent form of Billings and Harmes means you can still make the case for the Chiefs.
An interesting observation – a lot of players on this line for both teams featuring in the Melbourne v GWS game this weekend. Indeed, the entire Chiefs line sans Grundy are playing Sunday afternoon. The Grand Final is going down to the wire.
What does a Chiefs win look like?
Probably awfully similar to their 272 win in the preliminary final against the Scourers. Big hundreds to Grundy, Macrae, Laird and Dangerfield, with a supporting mammoth score from an Adams, a Whitfield, a Gunston, or an Oliver (or all of them?). It’s likely to be more than enough to make up for even a handful of subpar scores from some of the lesser lights. This is a team with an alarming amount of firepower.
What does a Roughnecks win look like?
Probably a bit like their Round 3 victory over the Chiefs – presumably minus a 19 from George Hewett though.
Out of the box scores from the leading lights (Martin 177, Hunter 148), combined with the Chief’s bottom six really phoning it in (Lester 43, Florent 43, Taylor 46).
The likes of Kelly, Whitfield, Gunston, Billings and Swallow need to deliver those occasional 60 to 80s. The likes of Maynard, Tomlinson, Smith, Langford and Neal-Bullen need to score 90s instead of 60s.
The Verdict
The Chiefs are averaging a smidge under 2000 points a week since the bye (1999.7) – and are going at 2170 in their last two.
The Roughnecks are not averaging that. In fact, they’ve not cracked the 2000 barrier at all in season 2018.
It’s not rocket science. The numbers point clearly in one direction. The Chiefs haven’t lost since Round 16, and they put up 2009 that week.
An upset may occur, but you can’t back the Roughnecks with confidence.