Two model clubs walk into a bar. One fighting for a debut Grand Final appearance, the other hoping for a fourth successive trip.
Both have big outs. Who will go on to fight one more round?
Form Guide
The graphic tells the story – these two are close. Probably give a slight edge to the Sparkles over the journey, but the Defenestrators have the stronger showing the last time they took the field.
Last time they met…
Very recently! Only a few weeks ago in fact – with the Sparkles besting the Defenestrators in what proved to be a high scoring round 20 encounter. The Sparkles had 8 players score triple figures that week – and none of them were Nick Daicos or Adam Cerra. Which is good, because they won’t have either of those players this weekend.
A trip down the recent history path suggests we’re in for a great matchup this weekend. Several clashes between these two have been decided by less than 50 points.
Path to Victory
Back in the pre-season coaches survey, the Sparkles were widely deemed the team most likely to face the Soldiers in the Grand Final.
So far, so good. They’re a win away from making accurate predictors of nearly all of us.
But one imagines the Defenestrators would be pretty happy with how the cards have fallen. This particular Sparkles squad aren’t quite the fearsome outfit many envisioned after draft day.
Don’t get me wrong, they’re plenty good. But they’ve only finished fourth. There’s no Daicos, no Cerra. The ruck position isn’t as strong in practice as it perhaps looked on paper at round 1. The forward line is hot, or cold, and rarely in between.
The Defenestrators would have some degree of confidence they can earn a fourth successive Grand Final appearance. What a long way they’ve come from that club that couldn’t get past a Preliminary Final!
But they have their own problems. No Sam Walsh, for starters. Do they start Tom Mitchell, who seems perputally at risk of being subbed out in the third quarter these days? Is Paddy Dow going to feature this weekend? Will Rylee West? Zac Fisher? These are not particularly scary names. Will Simon Goodwin help him out and drop Brodie Grundy?
Or do all these problems simply fade away as they clear the deck for their most potent player… *checks notes* Nic Newman and his 133.3 avg in the last 3 weeks.
The more I ponder this game, the more I think both teams are so similar – it should be no surprise they’ve had so many tight matchups. They are models of consistency. They rarely score poorly – rarely below 1700, and for the Defenestrators at least, usually somewhere in the 1800s. That’s going to win most games, most weeks.
But they also haven’t reached truly great heights this season.
Neither of these teams has put up a score this year as strong as the one the Devils did last week. Neither team has broken the 2000 point barrier in 2023. The Defenestrators haven’t cracked 1900 since Round 13. They’ve only cracked 1900 two other times, back in rounds 6 and 7. The Sparkles had a very strong 1972 a few weeks back, but for the most part it’s scores in the 1750 to 1850 range since the byes.
So…. can whoever wins this game win next week? Or are the Devils the best chance of matching the Soldiers in a shootout?
I don’t know the answer to those questions, but I do know I wish my team was in their position – alive, and with a fighting chance. You can’t win it unless you’re in it, and one of these teams will still be in it come Sunday night. After that, anything can happen…