Well well well, look what we have here. Looks to me like we got ourselves a little rematch…
It’s first v second as these two clubs fight to join the Puttanesca Chiefs as the only teams with multiple premierships. Can the Soldiers go back-to-back? Or will the Defenestrators secure a just reward for their sustained excellence?
Form Guide
The Soldiers have spent nearly the entire season at a baseline that would represent every other club’s very best scores. But two of the past 3 games make for heartening reading for the Defenestrators (lets just ignore Round 21, shall we). Their best can’t beat the Soldiers’ best. But their best can beat the Soliders.
Player Form
Defenestrators Running Hot
| Season Avg | Last 3 Avg | Difference | |
| Nic Newman | 98.8 | 134 | +35.2 |
| Jack Sinclair | 102.19 | 113.3 | +11.1 |
| Conor Nash | 82.5 | 100.69 | +18.10 |
| Jesse Hogan | 75.4 | 97.69 | +22.29 |
| Paddy Dow | 55.79 | 87 | +31.21 |
Defenestrators Cooling Off
| Season Avg | Last 3 Avg | Difference | |
| Jarman Impey | 79.9 | 68.69 | -10.2 |
| Josh Kelly | 97.19 | 76.3 | -20.89 |
| Tom Mitchell | 90.69 | 73.3 | -17.3 |
| Stephen Coniglio | 101.4 | 85.69 | -15.71 |
Soldiers Running Hot
| Season Avg | Last 3 Avg | Difference | |
| Marcus Bontempelli | 116.59 | 131 | +15 |
| Hayden Young | 89 | 104 | +15 |
| Dayne Zorko | 82.59 | 98.3 | +15.8 |
| Dustin Martin | 88.69 | 102.3 | +13.3 |
| Mason Wood | 91.8 | 108.69 | +17.9 |
| Keidean Coleman | 68.4 | 93.69 | +25.29 |
Soldiers Cooling Off
| Season Avg | Last 3 Avg | Difference | |
| Caleb Daniel | 90.8 | 78.3 | -12.5 |
| Dan Houston | 91.5 | 80.3 | -11.2 |
| Christian Petracca | 106.3 | 93 | -13.3 |
| Josh Dunkley | 105.69 | 81.3 | -24.3 |
| Toby Greene | 88.09 | 77 | -11 |
| Daniel Rioli | 82.5 | 54 | -28.5 |
Last time they met…
Was during the byes, where the Soldiers delivered a thumping victory.
But we won’t dwell on that too much. There are much more interesting clashes to go over.
Let’s start with Round 6, where the Soldiers suffered a loss to the Defenestrators, one of only two such results for the entire season. This was their first clash since last year’s Grand Final (more on that later), and what a game it proved to be, as the Defenestrators snatched some small semblance of vengeance in the form of a 13 point victory.
Ed Curnow did his very best to drop this for the Defenestrators, offering up a miserable 24. The next lowest score from the team in pink was a 60. So yes, literally the only truly poor performer was the lesser Curnow.
The Defenestrators got a rare triple figure score from Rory Sloane, but otherwise the leading lights were the usual suspects – Coniglio, Kelly, Treloar, Walsh.
The Soldiers lowest scorer was Steven May, with 65 (sidenote: lol, imagine your lowest scorer being a 65 and still losing somehow. I’d flip a table*). They got a 148 from Bontempelli as well. There’s no “reason” the Soldiers lost. They performed great, they were just unlucky that 13 Defenestrators scored 90 or more that week (sidenote: another lol, good grief)
The game before this one was the 2022 Grand Final.
James Sicily was the Franklin Medalist last year, with a massive 151. Right behind him for the Soldiers was Sam Docherty (137), who will miss with injury. Dunkley (132) rounded out the supernova scores for the Soliders. In fact, the Soldiers “only” had three more centurions that weekend (Neale, Petracca, Bontempelli), but had a long list of 80+ scores.
For the Defenestrators, Dion Prestia was the top scorer with 129. But he won’t be taking part this weekend either. Hurn delivered a 118, and coach Zerna will be looking for something similar in what will be his final game at AFL level. Treloar (116) was the only other player to notch a century. Their lowest score was Hollands with a respectable 67, so very much a case of the cream not rising to the top for the Defenestrators (Mitchell, Coniglio, Kelly and even Gawn all scored in the 80s or 70s)
This weekend will mark the third straight season these two teams have faced one another in finals. In 2021, they played in a spectacular Preliminary Final that the Defenestrators won 2020 to 1915 (a scoreline that also doubles as a list of two pretty terrible years).
There will be a lot of veterans of the 2022 encounter taking the field this weekend. The Soldiers have lost a cadre of old men – Pendlebury, Cotchin, Heppell, Redden. And some less old ones, like Finlayson, Acres, and De Goey. But otherwise, the crux of the list is there. The Defenestrators are in a similar boat in terms of turnover.
(Having said that, it is interesting that despite the fact we keep 20, around a third of each team will be different this weekend than it was last year. The draft, waiver wire, and trades matter folks!)
*I would not actually flip a table because I’m not an unpleasant person.
Path to Victory
I don’t feel I need too spend much time on the Soliders’ path here. If they score their average score, they will almost certainly win. The Defenestrators are the ones with the work to do.
For those Defenestrators, an exact repeat of last weekend wouldn’t go unappreciated.
One imagines Hogan will be given a birth given his outrageous showing on the bench last weekend. Dabbling in key forwards is always risky business, but the Defenestrators are the underdog, and thus the one who needs to take risks. Hogan won’t take the field until the final Sunday game, so it’ll be a long wait to see if the selection pays off.
If the Defenestrators are to triumph come Sunday night, here are some things I think will likely have had to happen.
- The Defenestrators had the two highest scoring defenders on the ground (looking at Newman to continue his outrageous form, and Hurn to be fed the ball in his farewell here)
- Max Gawn has done what he always seems to do on Grand Final weekend, and gone 130+ on a Sunday afternoon.
- The Defenestrators midfield stayed within 100 points of the Soldiers midfield.
- The Soldiers forward line has significantly under-delivered.
I think the Defenestrators will struggle to win if any of the following occur.
- Any two of Callum Mills, James Worpel, Taylor Walker, Daniel Rioli, or Jade Gresham score 20+ their season averages
The Defenestrators absolutely cannot afford many, if any, of the Soldiers bottom 5 or so players to score 80 or more. Ideally, they’d see a couple of sub 50 scores from this cohort.
Finally, it’s worth noting that it’ll be the Defenestrators chasing the Soldiers right at the pointy end. The last game of the round will see Carlton host the Giants – a game that will feature many key Defenestrators. They’ll be coming home with a wet sail, chasing Sam Docherty, Toby Greene, and whatever lead the Soldiers have built up until that point.
In fact, this is shaping as a very Sunday heavy Grand Final. The game immediately before that one is Sydney v Melbourne, which has more representation from the Soldiers side of things – Petracca, Viney, Mills v Salem and Gawn.