Introduction
You may remember the thesis I wrote at the beginning of the year – all about list management, players ages and the profiles of the teams.
I personally haven’t stopped thinking about it. I can’t help but see the entire competition through this lens now, and so I feel the urgent need to be constantly refining, constantly improving, constantly updating it.
The year is almost done, and I’m desperate to go back and see how my theory played out. I want to explain what went right, and why I got things wrong. I’ll be aiming to release some highlights as we close in on Grand Final day.
MaherShalalHashBaz
I’m starting with Jordan, because what I’ve seen from him this year (in light of my preseason comments) has shocked and amazed me.
Pre-2024
Let me start with some of the things I said about his list back in February:
Jordan also nearly dropped his average (list) age by more than two years for a marginal uplift (in scoring).
“(per the above chart) 18 kids under twenty sit on this list. The rest pretty much sit in the sweet spot with 14 players between twenty-five and twenty-eight.
This tells me something – Jordan could be dangerous when he gets his best 22 out on the park, but depth is severely lacking. I feel like we’ve seen this before??”
When predicting 2025:
Jordan is still here (developing), but looks different to what we’ve seen above. His chart shifts ‘right’ along the x axis…
The Reality
It just goes to show that we all think about list management differently. I was here predicting a slow, methodical move forward – this is the Buscumb way. Low risk, low reward, however incrementally effective.
As quoted above, I always knew Jordan was a significant threat – but I only considered him a threat on the weeks he got that core group of guys on the field. I thought he could beat the best team on his best day, but that his best day wouldn’t be consistent.
The results started coming in, and I felt vindicated. 3 losses to start the season – then a score in the 1800’s to pip the Roughnecks. “Exactly” thought Mark to himself. A couple of normal scores through rounds 5 & 6, but then Round 7 comes along and Jordan almost scores in the 2000s. “Exactly” thought Mark to himself.
Then Alex capitulates. The game has changed…
A New List
I feel it is at this point, Jordan acutely understands the position of his list – his capabilities but also his weaknesses. But he also perceives that Alex’s fire sale might give him what is needed to overcome said weaknesses.
Let’s have a look at what happened to his list, comparing that first chart I did with his profile today:
I put Max in this chart to provide some context – here’s the reason. I feel my assessment of Max’s list validated this whole approach. I said at the outset that he was ready to potentially compete this year, and definitely in 2025 – and so it was… I felt like his list profile was the “Magna cum laude” of fantasy football rosters.
I’m truly looking forward to completing this exercise with Max’s list in good time. But I digress here…
Well, everything I said about Max now applies here to Jordan.
- The inherent risk of all those kids under 20 – Gone
- Lack of any 30+ year old that on a good day can go big – Gone
- Just not enough players in that prime 25-28 group compared with the best teams – Gone
The transition is complete – and this guy now matches it with the best.
So how did he do it?
Let’s have a look at the transaction history to see where the work was done:
This is the moment it began to change. Yes he gave up picks as well, but player to player, you get the feeling Ashcroft was the only thing he lost…
This only boosts my claim.
As does this a few days later…
He had a couple of absolute gambles, but they both worked and increased his average output by about 40 a game. Shrewd.
Summary
All those 18-20 year olds he had at the beginning of season 2024 were farmed off for players on the waivers that he either converted into gold, or utilised as solid back-up players that have served him well when that core group were missing.
I said that his best 22 were dangerous… he added 4 more in that whopper trade that gave him 26 guys who could beat the best. That’s a nice bit of headroom.
Did he lose anything to achieve this? I’m going to say… barely. Looking at every trade or delisting, Ashcroft is the only one I’d really hate to see leave my team if I had him. But look at what he got… Sometimes you need to make the hard calls.