There are few things better than Preliminary Final weekend.
Intrigue and opportunity abound. We could end up with a grand final between two teams who haven’t made one previously. We could have a grand final between two teams who each have a flag. We could have a grand final featuring a father against his son. We could have a grand final featuring a team in their 5th straight grand final.
But which of these futures will occur? If I could predict the future I’d be playing this weekend. So instead you’ll just have to settle for rampant speculation.
MILESTONES
100 games
- Nic Newman (Defenestrators)
- Dion Prestia (Defenestrators)
FORM GUIDE
What on Earth is going on for the Devils?
They’ve hit basically one note since round 19. And that note is 1693. Unless of course, you’re referring specifically to round 19. In which case the note is… 1692.
No joke – they’ve gone 1692, then 1693, and 1693. Incredible consistency. Though I suspect coach Bernardi is displeased that consistency is so mediocre compared to what has been season-long excellence prior to that point.
What’s happened? Well, Carlton fell off a cliff. That seems to be the primary factor. Suspension and injury have hit – particularly up forward (Rankine, Treacy, McKay). Their season has been built on incredible depth and consistency – though they do have guys who pop reasonably often. These two factors have driven the Devils to be the highest scoring team in the competition and a deserving minor premier.
But those two things have been disjointed in the past month.
In Round 19 they had 14 players score between 70 and 99, the sort of consistency that has made them competitive each week. But only two players broke the 100 point barrier – and one of them was Rozee with a flat 100. So they only scored 1693.
In round 20 the opposite occurred. The stars delivered – Butters, Rozee and Amon all went over 120, and Hewett and Cripps both 110. But they also had half their squad score less than 70, dragging them down to, you already know, 1693.
This weekend they are facing a team with much more top-end firepower than they possess. Zorko, Merrett and Dunkley all out-average the best performing Devil, and they have a deeper second rung too with Green and Nankervis. MaherShalalHashBaz haven’t scored less than 1805 since Round 17. Their form over the last month will not cut it.
What interesting reading this makes for. The Sparkles have set a very high bar for consistency since the byes – their lowest score is a very respectable 1808 over that time period.
We’ve covered a few times already the enviable collection of scalps the Defenestrators took to close the home & away season – including their opponents this weekend. But they certainly can’t claim to have been as consistent as their opposition. Their absolute peak over this period narrowly outstrips that of the Sparkles though, and their recent victory over them will give them confidence heading into the matchup.
Last time they met…
The Devils and MaherShalalHashBaz gave us a classic in their last encounter, with the latter winning an epic by just 8 points back in round 15.
What is it with MaherShalalHashBaz and close games….
It was the rare game in which MSHB didn’t have the most centurions. But they avoided disaster at the bottom end of the 22 with only one score below 50 – Darcy Tucker’s 43. The Devils copped a 39 from Luke Jackson (ouch) and a 36 from Nick Hind (always a gamble, Mr Hind). Those margins proved the difference.
Tom Green was best on ground with 127. Butters and Stringer (another gamble) rounded out the votes for the Devils, with 124 and 119 respectively.
The Sparkles and Defenestrators met very recently – just 3 weeks ago in round 20. The margin wasn’t as tight as our other retrospective, but it was higher scoring, with both teams breaking the 1900 point barrier. But it was the Defenestrators who had a 46 point victory.
The team pink won despite a colossal 156 from Tristian Xerri. That will give them heart as they’ll likely need to contend with something similar this weekend. Daicos and Stewart also scored over 120, alongside 10 others players who scored 85 or more.
Unfortunately for the Sparkles, their forward line let them down. Langford and Lipinksi could only manage 39 points each, and Brad Hill was hardly better with 46.
The Defenestrators only had one sub-50 score, from perennial success magnet Patrick Dangerfield. Matt Roberts and James Peatling outdid Daicos and Stewart by going over the 130 mark, and Treloar wasn’t far behind on 125.
Path to Victory
The Devils find themselves in a befuddling spot. They are the minor premier, and the highest scoring team in the league throughout season 2024. They should be favourite against whoever they face.
But they feel like distinct underdogs going into this one. The form has cratered. And while Port Adelaide is ascendant, Carlton is baron. It feels like they, not MaherShalalHashBaz, who have to roll the dice a bit with team selection. Will they field Stringer and hope for one of his occasional booms?
Speaking of ascendant, MSHB. Curnow is out, and that stings. But there is a distinct lack of injury icons on the bench. They’ll have a bit more flexibility than their opponents – which feels crazy as the Devils’ strength all season long has been their depth.
Worth noting it’s the Devils who will likely be doing the chasing this weekend. West Coast v Carlton is the final game of the round. The Devils will likely have 4 players in that one, whereas MSHB may have none.
For the Sparkles, it seems mostly mental. The Preliminary Final round is the furthest they’ve ever gone. This is where they falter. Will they falter again?
The Defenestrators have Max Gawn, yet somehow do not go into this encounter with the stronger ruck, given Tristian Xerri’s record setting month. Xerri goes up against an English-less Bulldogs this weekend, so the alarm bells will be screaming in Defenestrators HQ. Though perhaps they’ll ponder just how much better he could perform than his 3-week average of 158 anyway, and land on “not very”. Their aforementioned victory against the Sparkles despite Xerri’s incredible form will boost their confidence as well.
The Sparkles have the edge in the middle – the Defenestrators will be hoping to finally get Coniglio back to help square this up. They have the name advantage down back with Daicos, Stewart and Dale. But they’ll be weary of Newman, Sinclair and Roberts – who just so happen to be averaging more in recent weeks than their more glamourous counterparts.
Up forward there are similarities as well – primarily the fact both teams possess forwards I wouldn’t describe as overly consistent. Very boom or bust for both squads here I feel. The Sparkles forward line had a lot of bust the last time these two met. Could something similar play out this weekend?