What’s this? No Defenestrators? Where are they? They’re always here?
A remarkable streak is over, and now before us is something entirely new. Both these teams are in their first grand final. Whatever transpires this weekend, by Sunday night we will have a first time premier.
The Devils have had the most remarkable transformation. They are, still, the least successful team in the league’s history. They’ve won just 48 games across 9 seasons. But they are also this year’s minor premier, and the highest scoring team in the league. Coach Bernardi has taken them to a new level.
The Sparkles are the fourth most successful club in league history – again, in terms of wins. But they’ve never progressed this far before. A win this weekend would be a just reward for what has largely been sustained success.
FORM GUIDE
The Sparkles have outscored the Devils in each of the last four weeks these clubs have taken the field. They are, clearly, the form team in this matchup and seem the safe bet.
But the Devils regained some form in last week’s Preliminary Final against MaherShalalHashBaz. And that round 17 result is a reminder that they can reach some incredible heights.
So the question is which Devils outfit are we getting this weekend?
Last time they met…
Wasn’t that long ago – we can see it in that form guide above. It was round 18, and it was the Devils once again reiterating their premiership credentials with a 107 point victory.
The Devils had 8 players hit triple figures, and another 3 in the 90s. Martin and Briggs each scored more than 140, Butters went 133, and Cripps 127. All of which was more than enough to counter two poor scores of 39 in the forward line from Cameron and Hayward.
Sparkles had 6 centurions – and another 7 with 85 or more. But the Devils had the four highest scorers in the matchup, and those superior heights proved the difference.
The Devils have 5 wins in this matchup historically. The Sparkles 10. Which is a little closer than I expected given the Devils’ struggles up until basically last season. Sneaky.
Key Player Form Guide
A cursory look at each club’s top 5 players this season tells us what we’ve already touched on several times in these previews throughout the year. The Devils do not have the top-end firepower of the Sparkles – or indeed many of the other finalists this season.
| Player | Avg. Points | Games | AVG last 5 | AVG last 3 |
| Zak Butters | 106.86 | 21 | 111.8 | 126.3 |
| Nic Martin | 105.67 | 21 | 103.59 | 111.3 |
| Patrick Cripps | 100.14 | 21 | 93 | 96 |
| Connor Rozee | 97.5 | 18 | 104.59 | 116 |
| Jordan Clark | 96.24 | 21 | 92 | 94.69 |
But their two most potent players are coming in with very good form – the last 3 averages from Butters and Martin are in superstar territory. Throw in Rozee and his rolling 116 average, and you’ve got yourself quite the trio. All eyes on that late Sunday game…
| Player | Avg. Points | Games | AVG last 5 | AVG last 3 |
| Tristan Xerri | 112.55 | 20 | 144 | 146.69 |
| Jack Steele | 107.76 | 21 | 120 | 118.3 |
| Matt Crouch | 104.62 | 13 | 104.59 | 97.3 |
| Nick Daicos | 103.81 | 21 | 98.8 | 93 |
| Noah Anderson | 103.33 | 21 | 94.59 | 103.3 |
Xerri is the headline here, and justifiably so. He’s the hottest player in fantasy right now. The Devils will be hoping Lloyd Meek can do one hell of a containment job down in Launceston on Saturday.
Steele is also red hot and has quietly put together a very unassuming 107 average for the year. Daicos, though, is down on his standard. The Devils will be hoping that continues, and will find out very quickly whether it does or not – the Pies play Friday night.
Path to Victory
Lets take a look at some possible lineups…
Defenders
| Last 5 | Avg |  |  | Avg | Last 5 |
| 92 | 97.59 | Clark | Daicos | 102.3 | 98.8 |
| 92 | 88.69 | Amon | Dale | 92.4 | 86.4 |
| 68.8 | 83.9 | Crisp | Stewart | 90.59 | 102.4 |
| 86 | 79.5 | Short | Lloyd | 75.69 | 74.19 |
| 74.19 | 78.19 | Impey | Atkins | 69.8 | 63 |
| 75 | 73.3 | Idun | Clohesy | 65.69 | 60.4 |
The Devils have the advantage at the tail end here, but it’s the Sparkles with the superior top end – a trend apparent in other lines as well.
For the Devils, I think Short and Impey are ones to watch. They’re both capable of scores far above their current averages – and Impey feels due for one of his random 100+ outings. North Melbourne may oblige him.
Clark takes on a very stingy Port Adelaide team, which could pose a problem.
For the Sparkles all eyes will be on Daicos on Friday night. His score could set the tone for the weekend ahead. Atkins and Stewart have a favourable matchup against the Eagles. Might there be some cheap ball on offer?
Midfield & Ruck
| Last 5 | Avg | | | Avg | Last 5 |
| 111.8 | 106.9 | Butters | Xerri | 114.69 | 144 |
| 103.59 | 106.59 | Martin | Steele | 107.4 | 120 |
| 93 | 99.3 | Cripps | Crouch | 103.9 | 104.59 |
| 104.59 | 98.3 | Rozee | Anderson | 102.9 | 94.59 |
| 98.19 | 91.59 | Briggs | McCluggage | 97.19 | 95 |
| 100.59 | 90.5 | Horne-Francis | Davies-Uniacke | 95.8 | 97.8 |
| 78.19 | 87.9 | Acres | Wines | 90.4 | 100 |
| 73.19 | 85.3 | Berry | Newcombe | 85 | 93.59 |
| 96.8 | 81.09 | Hewett | Williams | 74.69 | 67.19 |
| 79.19 | 77.9 | Worpel | Sidebottom | 72 | 74.8 |
There are some real form players here. Once again, I think the tailend looms large here. Can Hewett and Worpel batter the scores from Williams and Sidebottom? If the Sparkles can draw even here, it’s hard to see them losing if everything else is within the expected realm.
The divergent recent form of Berry v Newcombe, as well as Acres v Wines, bodes well for the Sparkles.
Forwards
| Last 5 | Avg | | | Avg | Last 5 |
| 62.59 | 79.3 | Jackson | Neal-Bullen | 79.09 | 85.19 |
| 87 | 77.8 | Kennedy | Baker | 79 | 66.59 |
| 54.59 | 73.9 | Bolton | Hill | 74.69 | 54.4 |
| 65.8 | 67 | Stringer | Simpkin | 73.5 | 76.59 |
| 66.59 | 67 | Hayward | Greene | 73.09 | 71 |
| 61.4 | 63.59 | Elliott | Stengle | 64.4 | 58.4 |
Both these forward lines are largely out of form – with the exception of two players. Kennedy, who could prove to be the standout forward on grand final day, and the always unassuming Neal-Bullen, a longtime Sparkle at this point, who has been in fine form himself.
Can Bolton deliver in what could possibly, likely, be his final game as a Tiger? He’s been well below his standard. His opposite number in Brad Hill is also out of form. He’s a bit like Impey to me, in the sense he can pop a crazy score from time to time….
Something to watch…
The round finishes with Fremantle v Port Adelaide. The Devils will likely have 5 players in that matchup – and 3 of them are team leaders in Butters, Rozee and Clark (and not to mention the in-form Horne-Francis…)
The Sparkles will likely have just the one – Ollie Wines.
The Devils will likely also have another 4 in the game immediately before that one. So they’ll be coming home with numbers on the Sunday. Or viewed another way, chasing all weekend.
Will the chase end in success and the culmination of a remarkable job by a coach who inherited the lowest team in the league? Or will the Sparkles finally take that long awaited final step? There’s nothing left to do but watch and enjoy.