It’s the business end of the season and the Preliminary Final weekend has routinely been drama filled. It’s when legends are made (Last year it was Jack Steele, in 2018 it was Luke Parker, and Mitch Brown did it in 2016 #neverforget)
Before us are 3 teams who have set a roaring pace, and last year’s runner-up. Will we get a Burgess bowl? A repeat of the 2019 Grand Final? A repeat of last year’s Grand Final? Or something we’ll need to come up with a name for (that’s the Devils v Roughnecks outcome…)
On with the games.
1st Preliminary Final
The pre-season favourites have delivered on every front so far in 2025. They’ve sat atop the ladder for most of the back half of the season on their way to the minor premiership, and in recent weeks they’ve made a series of trades that can only be read as putting the chips all the way in. This is a team that means to win.
The second-to-last hurdle before them are last season’s minor premier in the Devils. By their own reckoning they’ve had a disappointing season, and yet they find themselves a win away from a second consecutive grand final.
On the form guide alone, it would be a bold person to back the Devils here. MaherShalalHashBaz are flush on every line. The Devils have their own bevy of stars who can take it up to their counterparts, but they’ll be fielding a few more high variance, boom-or-bust players this weekend. They’ll probably need just about every single one of them to hit the boom outcome this weekend. Likely? Probably not. Possible? Yes.
Head-2-Head Record
MaherShalalHashBaz have held sway in this matchup this season, winning all 3 encounters pretty comfortably – Round 20 is the main reason the word ‘pretty’ is used there.
But the Devils can take solace in their previous meeting this late in the season, winning last season’s equivalent matchup by 91 points.
The Devils’ victory over MSHB in a 2024 Preliminary Final was anchored by their Port Adelaide and Carlton brigade. Butters was best on ground with 143, with George Hewett not far behind with 136. Nic Martin delivered a 121. Oh, and 7 more Devils also hit the triple figures.
Martin aside, all of those centurions will be featuring for the Devils this weekend. Is that some optimism I smell in the air…
MaherShalalHashBaz were led by young gun Sam Darcy, who served up a 133. The now departed Tom Green scored 122. In fact 15 of the best 22 scored 80 or more for MSHB, but the Devils superior firepower at the top end proved to be the difference.
Factors of interest
Hard to decide which is more interesting to me.
- The second Friday night clash between Fremantle and Brisbane could have huge implications. MSHB likely have 3 Lions taking the field – Zorko, Wilmot, and Dunkley. The Devils will likely have 3 Dockers taking the field – Clark, Jackson, and Bolton. They’ll also have a Lion of their own in Berry. One imagines coach Bernardi will be hoping for Freo to win that one.
- Saturday afternoon looms large for the Devils, as the fixture has aligned yet again and the bulk of their midfield will be facing off against one another in the Carlton v Port Adelaide clash.
The Sunday sitch…
There’s a chance we’ll wake up on Sunday with a pretty clear idea if this contest is alive or not.
The Devils will potentially have just 3 players taking the field on Sunday. MaherShalalHashBaz will likely have around 6.
So the Devils need to enter Sunday with a defendable lead. They’ll have Matthew Kennedy in the final game of the round, while their opponents will likely have Sam Darcy and Jack Graham taking the field.
2nd Preliminary Final
Here we go again…
These two have a storied history together, with this being the fifth finals clash between the two. We’ve only been doing this for ten seasons, so that’s a hell of a strike rate.
The recent form guide bodes well for the Roughnecks, particularly their most recent competitive outing – a reasonably comfortable victory against these Sparkles.
Their worst score over the last month was 1817, which would’ve been enough to defeat the Sparkles on 3 occasions.
But the Love Sparkles have also delivered some very strong scores of their own, particularly in round 17 and again in round 19, when they cracked the 1900+ barrier. They’ve been operating without Xerri for much of this period as well. They’re perfectly capable of putting up a winning score this weekend.
Head-2-Head Record
These two have been trading victories back and forth of late. The Sparkles are the ones due for a win…
We mentioned the finals history in the intro, but it’s worth going over it here. The Roughnecks held sway in the first 3 finals encounters, including a nail-biting 11 point victory in a 2018 Preliminary Final (Luke Parker top scored with a 143).
But the Sparkles finally broke back in the 2023 elimination final, with another nailbiter – this time by 14 points (Jai Newcombe almost single handedly decided the matchup with a massive 159). And that win came off the back of another encounter between these two at the tail end of that home & away season, when the Sparkles won by just 3. The Sparkles will be hoping the quick rematch pays dividends for them again.
Even beyond finals drama, their clashes have been decided by less than 50 points seven times. These two often deliver on the entertainment front.
Factors of interest (and The Sunday sitch..)
Combining these two sections for this matchup, as much of the intrigue will be Sunday related here.
Non-Sunday notes
On Saturday night the two leading lights of their midfields will face-off in reality, with Roughneck Jordan Dawson every chance to stand beside freshly minted DangerGawn Medallist Nick Daicos. The fate of this matchup could go some way to determining the victor this weekend.
At first blush it would seem the Roughnecks have an advantage down back, and up forward, while the Sparkles midfield bats a bit deeper and is in better form. Which of those strength areas will prove the difference? Or can one team’s lesser brigade make up the difference? Keep an eye on Bailey Dale, Toby Greene, and Jy Simpkin for the Sparkles – these three have been very boom or bust in 2025. If all 3 boom, that might be enough to erase any paper advantage the Roughnecks may have.
Sunday notes
The outcome of this game will almost certainly be cloudy still come Sunday morning, as both clubs will have a stack of players still to come.
Nearly all of the Sparkles backline play Sunday, and a surprising number of their key cogs play for North Melbourne. The Geelong v Sydney game could be a point of difference, as Bailey Smith will be the lone Roughneck on the field, taking on Stewart, Guthrie, and Lloyd.
In the final game of the round, the Sparkles will likely be closing out with Bulldogs Bailey Dale, Joel Freijah, and Baker from the Eagles.
With Grundy out, the Roughnecks will likely have 1 fewer Sunday combatant. They’ll close out with the same number as the Sparkles though, with Ed Richards, Bailey Williams stepping in for Laird, and Tim Kelly, who returns after a prolonged form-induced absence from the Roughnecks line-up.