Well well well, if it isn’t last year’s premiers defending their title against the pre-season fancy.
After one of the most competitive home & away seasons in league history, MaherShalalHashBaz will take on the Love Sparkles to determine who takes home the 2025 flag.
The question on every observer’s lips (or just mine) – will we have ourselves a close Grand Final?
The past two seasons have culminated in blow-out victories, and you have to go back to 2020 to find a margin under 100 points.
History would suggest we’re in for a treat though. MaherShahalHashBaz have featured in two previous Grand Finals. The margins? 17 points and 15 points.
I’m sorry I’m finding it hard to look at that outlier result and not take it extremely personally…
Round 19 would suggest the Sparkles aren’t necessarily relying on a minor miracle here though. Based on recent form they simply can’t afford a sub 1800 score and expect to be competitive though. They’ve had a few of those lately. But they’ve also routinely gone over 1850 as well. That’d be enough to get MSHB if they have a poor outing.
Last time they met…
Was in Round 16, the final week of the byes, and saw the Sparkles comfortably subject MHSB to their second loss of the season. The Sparkles had a 27 from Dylan Stephens and a 28 from Rory Lobb, but still topped 1900 points thanks to 14 players scoring 90+. Nick Daicos led the way with 137.
Historically this matchup has ebbed and flowed. Until recently, teams tended to win multiple times in a row.
They’ve also only had one clash be decided by less than 100 points since the end of the 2020 season.
Key Player Form Guide
MaherShalalHashBaz’s top 5 players not only come into the Grand Final in tip-top form, two of them weren’t even on the list a month ago.
| Player | Avg | GP | Last 5 Avg | Last 3 Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | 113.2 | 22 | 118.2 | 122 |
| Josh Dunkley | 106.2 | 22 | 116.2 | 112 |
| Zach Merrett | 102.8 | 20 | 104.8 | 107.7 |
| Dayne Zorko | 102.6 | 22 | 92.2 | 101 |
| Jack Sinclair | 101 | 22 | 108.2 | 102.7 |
Comparatively the Sparkles’ leading lights have a mixed form line. DangerGawn Medallist Nick Daicos is well below his average over the last 3 weeks, but well above it over the last 5.
Hugh McCluggage is in great form, but club legend Jack Steele has been below his best – thanks in large part to an appearance as the sub a few weeks back. Coach Burgess (well, one of them) will be hoping last week’s 105 heralds a timely return to form.
| Player | Avg | GP | Last 5 Avg | Last 3 Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | 108.4 | 22 | 118.8 | 95.3 |
| Tristan Xerri | 102.4 | 19 | 99 | 102 |
| Noah Anderson | 101.2 | 21 | 98.2 | 102 |
| Hugh McCluggage | 100.8 | 22 | 100.2 | 108 |
| Jack Steele | 95.6 | 20 | 79.2 | 77 |
Path to Victory
Lets take a look at some possible lineups…
Defenders
| Last 5 | Avg |  |  | Avg | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.2 | 102.6 | Zorko | Dale | 92.6 | 96.6 |
| 108.2 | 101 | Sinclair | Lloyd | 83.7 | 76 |
| 93.8 | 87.6 | Mills | Stewart | 79.1 | 74 |
| 84.2 | 78.7 | Wilmot | Guthrie | 76.9 | 77.4 |
| 72.4 | 76 | Haynes | Milera | 72.7 | 85 |
| 90.2 | 75 | McGrath | Freijah | 70.3 | 60.2 |
MaherShahalHashBaz hold an edge here, particularly when McGrath’s recent form is taken into account.
It’s not out of the realm of possibility for the Sparkles to break even here though. Dale in particular has a significant ceiling. If Freijah can recapture some of his early season form, that could go a long way to squaring up this line for the Sparkles.
Midfield, Ruck and Utility
| Last 5 | Avg | | | Avg | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116.2 | 106.2 | Dunkley | N. Daicos | 108.4 | 118.8 |
| 104.8 | 102.8 | Merrett | Anderson | 101.2 | 98.2 |
| 106.4 | 99.4 | Callaghan | McCluggage | 100.8 | 100.2 |
| 77.6 | 89.7 | Petracca | Steele | 95.6 | 79.2 |
| 86.4 | 94.5 | J. Daicos | Davies-Uniacke | 86.8 | 102.2 |
| 81.4 | 87 | Sidebottom | Newcombe | 86.7 | 65.8 |
| 78.8 | 86.7 | Pendlebury | Fiorini | 85.1 | 95.4 |
| 75.2 | 74.3 | Boak | Windhager | 82.3 | 92 |
| 118.2 | 113.2 | Gawn | Xerri | 102.4 | 99 |
| 91.8 | 92 | Nankervis | Sheldrick | 63.5 | 74 |
These are two titanic midfield groups. The Love Sparkles really need their stars to outshine their opposition to make up likely deficits in other parts of the field.
At time of writing, the Utility matchup looms as a major plus for MSHB though. Can Sheldrick, a former HashBazer, play the game of his life?
Forwards
| Last 5 | Avg | | | Avg | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78.8 | 85.4 | Daniel | Simpkin | 81.7 | 85 |
| 82.2 | 84.3 | Darcy | Greene | 80.3 | 77.4 |
| 94.4 | 81.7 | Cameron | Baker | 78.9 | 87.4 |
| 71.2 | 78 | Keays | Martin | 73.9 | 69 |
| 83 | 81.8 | Graham | Riccardi | 68.7 | 64 |
| 78.4 | 75.2 | Maric | Papley | 55.1 | 53.4 |
Once again MSHB has the advantage on paper, with 3 of their forwards having greater averages than the leading Sparkle. They’d expect to secure a proper points advantage on this part of the field.
Some things to watch…
Max Gawn will be playing in his 6th Grand Final. His scores previously:
- 95 (in a 2016 loss, representing MSHB)
- A Franklin Medal winning 154 (in a 2019 win, representing MSHB)
- 83 (in a 2020 loss, representing the Defenestrators)
- 139 (in a 2021 win, representing the Defenestrators)
- 77 (in a 2022 loss, representing the Defenestrators)
- 74 (in a 2023 loss, representing the Defenestrators)
On the face of it would seem the result is entirely based on whether Gawn scores 100+ or not
The Sunday sitch will be mighty prominent here. Both clubs have a bevy of stars on Sunday, and multiple players in the concluding game of the round.
| Sunday | | |
|---|---|---|
| GWS v Saints | Sinclair | Steele |
| Callaghan | Windhager | |
| Greene | ||
| Riccardi | ||
| Bulldogs v Fremantle | Darcy | Dale |
| Freijah | ||
| Brisbane v Hawthorn | Zorko | McCluggage |
| Wilmot | Newcombe | |
| Dunkley |
It could very well come right down to the wire. In the very least, it seems unlikely it’d be over by Sunday morning.
With any luck, we’ll have an entertaining show for those of us watching from the sidelines.