The Roughnecks are being heavily touted for premiership glory, with 71% of survey responders nominating the league’s “almost” club to finally take the crown.
Last year’s premiers, MaherShalalHashBaz, are the only other team backed for the flag. Yes, that means no coach has selected the Sparkles, despite being a solitary point shy of going back-to-back last season. Two coaches think the Sparkles will make the Grand Final for a third year running, but neither think they’ll win on the day.
One coach thinks the Taxmanian Devils can make it to the Grand Final as well, but predicts they’ll fall short on the day.
Who finishes where?
Three teams have been backed for the minor premiership. There’s an even split of votes between the Roughnecks and MaherShalalHashBaz, while one coach thinks the Sparkles will be the minor premier.
The coaches are unanimous that the Chiefs and Soldiers will miss the finals, with the Soldiers also the $1.01 favourite to collect a fourth spoon in club history.
After that though, there is some disagreement.
85% of responders think the Vipers will also miss, but the fourth spot seems well and truly up for grabs. 3 coaches have nominated Te Puke Pukekos to miss finals for the 8th consecutive season. Meanwhile, 3 other coaches think the Defenestrators will miss the finals for the first time. Threat Level Midnight are the up and comer coaches feel most optimistically about, with only 1 coach predicting them to miss.
One coach thinks the Sparkles will miss. I assume that was a mistake.
When asked to predict the ladder at the end of the home and away season, clear tiers emerge.
Tier A: Roughnecks and MaherShalalHashBaz. These two are widely backed to earn the finals bye.
Tier B: The Devils and the Sparkles, with the Devils seemingly having a slight edge (average predicted finishing position of 3.4 to 3.6 for the Sparkles. Though someone has predicted the Sparkles to miss entirely, so perhaps if we remove that outlier, they’d be in their own tier above the Devils…)
Tier C: Threat Level Midnight, Te Puke Pukekos, and the Defenestrators – in that order too. It seems coaches think these 3 teams will be fighting it out for two finals spots between them.
Tier D: The Vipers and Puttanesca Chiefs are widely backed to finish in 8th and 9th, respectively.
Tier E: The Soldiers, who everybody believes will finish last.
Club Lists
71% of the respondents think the Roughnecks have the best group of defenders, no doubt thanks to the two big dogs in Wanganeen-Milera and Whitfield, because it’s certainly not due to their depth in this part of the field. MaherShalalHashBaz and the Taxmanian Devils also score a vote for this line. No love for Midnight though, and their incredible depth down back.
Almost everybody agrees the Sparkles have the best midfield, yet again. MaherShalalHashBaz are the only other club to get a vote here.
MaherShalalHashBaz are the team with the best forwards according to more than half of respondents. Te Puke Pukekos find themselves with 2 votes here, and the Roughnecks with one. No votes for the Devils, who were the strong favourite in this category in last year’s survey, and no votes for the club who holds Sheezel.
One observes MaherShalalHashBaz has received at least one vote for each line on the ground. Enviable!
But despite that, coaches seem to think the Roughnecks are the one with the most firepower, with 71% of coaches thinking they’ll have the highest single round score.
If coaches had to switch lists with anybody, 57% of them would like the Roughnecks list. Te Puke Pukekos, who haven’t made finals since 2018, have two votes! The Love Sparkles also have a vote. No votes for MaherShalalHashBaz is interesting…
Player Awards
Coaches think two bulldogs will be fighting it out for the DangerGawn Medal this year. Previous winner Tim English 
and Marcus Bontempelli 
have both gotten two votes a piece. Harry Sheezel , last year’s winner Nick Daicos 
, and Will Ashcroft 
are the other players to score a vote.
5 coaches think Wanganeen-Milera 
will repeat as the number one defender. Fellow Roughneck Lachie Whitfield gets a vote, as does Connor Rozee 
The midfield race looks similar to the DangerGawn one. Marcus Bontempelli and Bailey Smith both have two coaches backing them for the mantle. Nick Daicos has a vote, as does Jordan Dawson and Errol Gulden
Harry Sheezel is the unbackable favourite for the forward crown. Only one other forward has earned a single vote – Luke Jackson
Similar dominance in the ruck, where Tim English has all but one vote. Luke Jackson, again, is the interloper. No love for Max Gawn 
or Brodie Grundy here.
Most improved player is a real grab bag. Clayton Oliver 
has a vote, presumably the coach backing him isn’t expecting new career highs though. Another Chief in Colby McKercher has a vote. Other nominees include Harley Reid , Harry Rowston 
, Kane McAuliffe , Lawson Humphries and Connor Macdonald
The Puttanesca Chiefs’ second overall selection, Dyson Sharp , has 3 votes for rookie of the year. Defenestrator Jacob Farrow 
has 2, Willem Duursma has one. Jagga Smith also has one, and I’m assuming that means most coaches have not considered him a rookie (editor note: I didn’t)
There are two players in the entire league people would add to their list if they could – Sheezel and Daicos.
All-Australians
Players to receive a vote for a defender spot
Only two unanimous players here – Wanganeen-Milera and Rozee.
Of interest – only 1 vote for Zorko, and no votes for Rory Laird.
| Player | Club | # votes |
|---|---|---|
| Wanganeen-Milera | | 7 |
| Rozee | | 7 |
| J. Daicos | | 5 |
| Ash | | 5 |
| Sinclair | | 5 |
| Whitfield | | 4 |
| J. Clark | | 2 |
| Dale | | 2 |
| McKercher | | 2 |
| Zorko | | 1 |
| Salem | | 1 |
| A. Roberts | | 1 |
Players to receive a vote for a midfielder spot
Only one unanimous selection here, Nick Daicos.
Only one vote for perennial All-Australian Zach Merrett. Ac couple of Soldiers with single votes. I didn’t check, but, I’m making some assumptions about the backer.
| Player | Club | # votes |
|---|---|---|
| N. Daicos | | 7 |
| Dawson | | 6 |
| Holmes | | 6 |
| Bontempelli | | 5 |
| Gulden | | 5 |
| Dunkley | | 5 |
| B. Smith | | 4 |
| Brayshaw | | 4 |
| Butters | | 4 |
| W. Ashcroft | | 4 |
| Anderson | | 2 |
| Callaghan | | 2 |
| Walsh | | 2 |
| Merrett | | 1 |
| Caldwell | | 1 |
| Young | | 1 |
| J. Smith | | 1 |
Players to receive a vote for a ruck spot
A lot of love for Tim English here. Coaches are very hot on his prospects this season, across a few categories.
| Player | Club | Votes |
|---|---|---|
| English | | 7 |
| Gawn | | 2 |
| Xerri | | 1 |
| Grundy | | 1 |
Players to receive a vote for a forward spot
Sheezel and Flanders both backed by all coaches who voted. Luke Jackson not far behind. Bit of love for key forwards Darcy and Thilthorpe. It seems coaches think there’s a pretty narrow pool in the mix on this line. Can anyone jump up and surprise?
| Player | Club | # votes |
|---|---|---|
| Sheezel | | 7 |
| Flanders | | 7 |
| L. Jackson | | 6 |
| Heeney | | 5 |
| Petracca | | 5 |
| Miers | | 3 |
| Pickett | | 3 |
| S. Darcy | | 2 |
| Thilthorpe | | 2 |
| Horne-Francis | | 1 |
| Mannagh | | 1 |
Draft Day
As always, there’s a split on the question of who “won” the draft. 40% of the league has garnered a vote. The Roughnecks lead the way with 43% of the vote. The Defenestrators are the only other club to earn more than one vote. MaherShalalHashBaz and the Taxmanian Devils also get a vote each.
As for the biggest steal from round 10 onwards, it’s once again a real grab bag. Here are the votes:
- Pick 113 – Lachie Blakiston
- Pick 116 – Luke Nankervis
- Pick 128 – Jaeger O’Meara
- Pick 144 – Joe Fonti
- Pick 145 – Will Hayward
- Pick 176 – Lincoln McCarthy
- Pick 189 – Todd Marshall
If the start-up draft was held today, Harry Sheezel would be favourite to go number one. He’s been selected by 43% of the respondents. Nick Daicos is the only other player to receive multiple votes. One coach has selected Wanganeen-Milera, and someone deeply unserious has selected Jagga Smith (I said what I said)
The Future
Coaches seem very bullish on Te Puke Pukekos, with 71% of respondents saying they are best placed for a flag in four years’ time. The Taxmanian Devils and Threat Level Midnight are the only other teams to get a vote.
We’ve also been doing this for a while now, which means we can actually start checking these guesses.
Let’s cast our minds back to the 2022 coaches survey to see what insights we can glean about what our 2022 selves thought this season would look like.
Who did we think was best placed to win the 2026 flag, back in 2022?
| 3 votes |
| 2 votes |
| 2 votes |
| 1 vote |
| 1 vote |
Yikes!
This is fun though. Lets have a look at 2021. Did anyone back MaherShalalHashBaz for glory in 2025?
| 2021 prediction for 2025 | |
|---|---|
| 5 votes |
| 1 vote |
| 1 vote |
| 1 vote |
| 1 vote |
One brave soul called it. I’ve gone back to look at it was…. drum roll… Alex! So clearly, he knew even then he was going to blow up his team well before the 2025 grand final.
The 2024 flag was famously won by the Love Sparkles over historical cellar dwelling Taxmanian Devils. Did we envision that back in 2020?
| 2020 prediction for 2024 | |
|---|---|
| 7 votes |
| 2 votes |
We didn’t! But two coaches got pretty close by backing the Devils. One of those coaches was Max though, so hard to determine how much of that was faith in process, and how much was wishful manifestation (Max can answer that!)