A first-round pick should be a source of great joy. The highest picks have had significantly more hits than misses over the last 11 years, however the same ratio does not continue as the picks go on. While every pick in the top 10 has had at least 1 Bonafide star selected there (see bottom of article for best hit at each pick), there is one exception. Pick 7 stands alone as a pick with what can only be said are no big hits, but plenty of misses.
This pick seems to sit in no-mans-land. Do you take a rookie, as has been done the last few years? While the cream of the crop has been taken in the first handful, there are generally more than 7 handy rookies to come out of each draft class.
Do you take a best available player? This pick will lend itself to being a genuine best 22 player if you go best available each year. Matt Kennedy went at 14 in 2025 for perspective – so you’ll certainly have the best chance at getting a hit here.
Do you go best young-ish player, but not a rookie? Someone to take a punt on, if you’re seeing something that others perhaps have overlooked. Risky, but high potential upside.
No one seems to have figured this out yet, which given all we’ve learned as a league over the course of what we’ve done (love that we’re well into year 11), this is puzzling.
Let’s have a look at just how bad it has been, and also what could have been with 20/20 hindsight in each draft.
2016 (inaugural draft)
Soldiers selected Stefan Martin.
The inaugural draft was a big event where we could all look at our lists, and before the games started there was optimism for all 10 teams. That changed quickly as the games got underway, and the Soldiers were one of the first to feel the pain that comes from realising mistakes were made. Stefan Martin had been a ruck pig for many seasons before this, and so they jumped at pick 7 to make him their starting ruck, however this year was the start of his decline, as he was already 29 at the time of this draft. He was traded out this same season for Jack Viney (and Jack Martin, but he never did much for the Soldiers), but even so the Soldiers would have loved this pick over.
Could have taken: The next 2 picks were Jack Macrae and Tom Mitchell. No need to look further than that for what the Soldiers could have done.
2017
Defenestrators selected Hayden Crozier
The first top up draft was all over the place for strategies and where players were taken. Paul had the lack of privilege as it happens to be of picking at 7, and this sums it up perfectly. Hayden Crozier played 3 games (0 finals) for Paul in 2017. Paul did win all 3 matches (considering he only lost 2 for the entire H&A season that shouldn’t be shocking), however this was a short lived tenure for Paul’s first round pick, as he was dropped in the list cull that offseason, to be picked up in the 4th round the following year.
Could have taken: Andrew McGrath went at 9 to Jordan as a first round rookie pick, as well as Tim Taranto being available. If we still wanted to look at best available players, Zach Tuohy went the very next pick to the Pukekos, where he went on to average over 80 for 4 of the next 6 seasons (5 if you count the 2020 Covid year adding 20% to allow for the shorter quarters)
2018
The Love Sparkles selected Rhys Mathieson
The Lions were not doing too much at this time (oh how that’s changed), and so taking a punt on a third year player coming into his own wasn’t the craziest idea that Greg has ever had. Mathieson averaged 71.9 in his second year in the league, so surely this is it. Third year breakout is still a thing, so why not Rhys? Unfortunately, 13 games at an average of 61 tells you all you need to know. He never had a 70 average again. 5 games for the Sparkles at an average of 62. He never played for them again.
Could have taken: George Hewett went to the Roughnecks at 10, and is still putting up excellent numbers today (when Carlton play him). Just like this pick in 2017, Tim Taranto was available, as were Tim Kelly and Jack Sinclair.
2019
The Love Sparkles selected Alex Neal-Bullen
Alex Neal-Bullen played 2 games for the Sparkles in 2019, before not being on their list for the 2020 season. On the plus side, he came back in 2021 and was a regular Sparkle until the end of 2025. So not to be forever banished. But not required to be picked this high to have a long-term role within the team.
Could have taken: Given Greg took a ruck in Big Boy McEvoy at pick 11, there was need for a ruck. Dangergawn medallists Tim English (pick 9) and Rowan Marshall (pick 30) were both available, as were Jordan Clark, Izak Rankine, and Nick Vlastuin.
2020
The Taxmanian Devils selected Will Snelling
I don’t think I need to spend much time with Will here. We questioned the call at the time, and I’m sure Max still questions it himself now. In 2021 he averaged 78, so maybe not as bad as we thought, but still not a long-term player for the Devils.
Could have taken: This is the one that hurts more than any other list. Picks 10-13 in order were Tom Green, Lachie Ash, Sam Flanders, Caleb Serong. Not to mention Luke Jackson at 21 (who the Devils made a point to trade for in 2022). While this article is focussing on pick 7, there were plenty of other top 10 picks that would like a do-over in this draft.
2021
The Roughnecks selected Jeremy Cameron
In terms of the quality of the player in hindsight, this is one of the better (I might even say best) picks at pick 7 in our history. While he was still cut from this Roughnecks list post the 2021 season, Adam saw enough (or had a bad enough case of Stockholm Syndrome) to pick him up again in 2022, at a much lower price (pick 48). Forwards are always valuable in fantasy as we know how many of them lose forward status year on year, so someone who can win a Coleman while getting the touches was a reasonable pick. Shame he didn’t deliver enough to be a long-term Roughneck, but it could have been worse.
Could have taken: This was the year we all missed on Errol Gulden. Pick 11 seems so farfetched when you look back with hindsight. Chad Warner at 45 the other stand out in the top 50, so realistically given Cameron was more ready as a win-now player, this pick gets a tick.
2022
The Love Sparkles selected Josh Sinn
I’ll admit I liked the look of Sinn heading into this draft as well. I thought he’d get a regular game for Port and be that rebounding player that we all know can score well in fantasy. Unfortunately, here we are in 2026 and he still hasn’t taken off. Injured long term this year, he’s a big case study for what could have been. Greg still wouldn’t care too much – this was the year he picked up some random from Collingwood named Nick.
Could have taken: Sam Darcy went in the first round at pick 9, and it wasn’t even everyone’s last chance to get him as he was in the following draft pool as well. Connor MacDonald was there as another young guy to jump on instead, or if travelling the win now path, Travis Boak, Tom Liberatore, or Franklin Medallist that year James Sicily were all available.
2023
The Puttanesca Chiefs selected Jhye Clark
Given the number of young Cats that have worked out for our resident Geelong fan, I don’t think too many people were questioning this call. The Cats got this pick for effectively nothing in the Jack Bowes salary dump from GC (which I’m not going to talk about as my feelings on this are less than flattering), and so an investment into another Geelong Falcons product felt right. 3 years later and Jhye was ruthlessly cut by the Chiefs, which seems like a short run for a pick 7, but that is actually the longest any of these picks in our history have been on the team that drafted them from that original pick/through being kept.
Could have taken: Riley Thilthorpe was on the board, and it was always a question of when a Crows fan would pounce. Would have been funny if the Cats fan went first. Jeremy Cameron would have been a better scoring option, though his age may not have fit the Chiefs list construction as well. Darcy Wilmot would have been the other option for a long-term keeper at this spot.
2024
The Taxmanian Devils selected Luke Parker
This is a harder one to judge, as with his age you could argue that youth should have been more of a target. However the Devils at this stage had plenty of youth, and they wanted points on the board. Given they played the grand final this year, mission accomplished. This was a shallow draft class, so pick 7 being the first selection that moved away from the rookies made a lot of sense. Unfortunately, Parker was only able to play 7 games in 2024 and so was cut, however Max was able to pick him up again for 2025 at pick 12 to get the resurgence for another campaign.
Could have taken: Gryan Miers at 12 was a massive steal to the Chiefs, while Darcy Cameron at 33 will forever be one of the best 4th round picks in our history.
2025
Solomon’s Soldiers selected Tobie Travaglia
One of the Soldiers six first round picks, this one along with Bo Allen at 10 are the two that have the Soldiers hierarchy upset that they couldn’t sweep their picks. Tobie has been the victim of a selection squeeze, wanting to give him time to develop in the lower levels, injury concerns, and now in 2026 the trade heavy approach the St’s took in the offseason has made it harder for the young guy to break in. The Soldiers are still hoping he will turn into the prodigious talent he was drafted to be, but there’s only so long you can keep a player on your list when he’s not getting a game.
Could have taken: The Soldiers had enough other high picks that they still got many of their targets. Matt Kennedy would have been funny as a best available player to jump on early, or if picking Leo Lombard here they wouldn’t have had to trade a future first to acquire him.
2026
Solomon’s Soldiers selected Josh Lindsay
It’s early days, but this kid looks like he might be the one to break the curse. Playing 7 of the Eagles first 8 games, and they seem to like having the ball in his hands with some elite kicking skills for a teenager, so this could be different. Or this could be like Carlton fans thinking this game they are ahead at half time of will be different to normal, only for it all to collapse in the second half….
I really hope this time is different.
Could have taken: Sam Cumming and Sam Grjl both look like decent cubs at the Tigers, and Lachie Jaques at the Dogs seems to have a similar role. Still too early to tell if any of these choices would have been better.
Best selections at each pick (ignoring inaugural draft)
1 – Andrew Brayshaw (2018), Sam Walsh (2019), Noah Anderson (2020), Will Ashcroft (2023)
2 – Hugh McCluggage (2017), Bailey Smith (2019), Matt Rowell (2020), Nick Daicos (2022)
3 – Hayden Young (2020), Finn Callaghan (2022)
4 – Josh Ward (2022), Harry Sheezel (2023), Harvey Langford (2025)
5 – Luke Davies-Uniacke (2018), George Wardlaw (2023), Sam Lalor (2025)
6 – Connor Rozee (2019), Riley Thilthorpe (2021), Josh Rachele (2022), Dan Curtin (2024)
7 – Jeremy Cameron (2021)
8 – Zach Tuohy (2017), Cam Rayner (2018), Jordan Ridley (2020), Cam Mackenzie (2023)
9 – Andrew McGrath (2017), Tim English (2019), Sam Darcy (2022), Finn O’Sullivan (2025)
10 – George Hewett (2018), Izak Rankine (2019), Tom Green (2020), Connor MacDonald (2022)