Presented by Mark
Well… Adam’s comment last week was that the fixture lords granted us a great looking round on paper. Can’t say they’ve decided to do it for us again. But it certainly makes my job as the fill-in reviewer much easier! There are some clear favourites for this week’s analysis.
Game of the Round
Adam might not be in the country, but this week, his boys are in the game of the round, coming up against TLM. It’s second vs fourth on the ladder, and they are only separated by a 482-point differential (that’s only 60 points a game for those who don’t want to do the math).
The accountant in me loves a good chart, so here’ s a bit of a summary of how these two have matched up this year:
The Roughnecks will go into this as favourites for the following reasons.
- They would have bested TLM 6 out of the last 8 weeks
- They haven’t scored below 1800
- Their top four scores this year have been better than TLM’s best
- Taranto and Dawson are back
However, TLM are still dangerous on their day. If you could say anything about them, it’s that they are consistently good. Aside from an off week in Round 5, they are a mid-1800 to 1900 point team, and that is good enough to beat anyone who doesn’t quite turn up. If Gulden and Rowell were in, this one would be extra spicy.
It’s a game that will ebb and flow all the way until Saturday night, where the Collingwood game will put Rowan 3 players ahead leading into the Sunday matchups. He’ll want to have a decent lead built up at this point, as Adam will be coming home strong – 4 Crows players play on Sunday against Richmond…. They won’t need the power stance to get this one done. Some big numbers expected for Dawson, Berry, Laird and Rachele.
Key Outs
Roughnecks: Perryman, Salem
TLM: Gulden, Rowell
Last time these two met
Was in Round 18 of last year, where the Roughnecks came up winners by 109 points. It was a ‘bang or bust’ match. Rowan got 166 from Bont, 144 from Rowell 113 from Sheezel and 3 other tons, but this was offset by a 32 from Fogarty, 36 from Chol and 39 from Lester.
Likewise, Adam got 132 from Taranto, 129 from Dawson, four others in the 120s + another ton. But then 37 from Lukosius, 43 from Drew and 58 from Flanders.
Buzz’s prediction
A reviewer needs his own distinguishing feature, so here’s mine… a prediction, likely with absolutely terrible forecasting accuracy!
Roughneck’s to win by 150 points.
Sneaky interesting matchup
With the top teams all coming up against cellar dwellers, I’m going to look outside of the top 6 for this week’s sneaky interesting game – it’s the Pukekos coming up against the Defenestrators in a classic 8 point game here that will likely shape this years’ finals series.
Talk about tight, it’s seventh vs eighth, with only 45 points separating them this year. Toit indeed.
Upon completion of this week, every team will have played each other once and we will have a true picture of how these teams compare – and how they also compare with my Chiefs who are similarly placed.
A win from Paul this week will have the Defenestrators, Pukekos and Chiefs all tied on 4 wins and 5 losses, with not many points between them. It would set up a tantalising run in the back half of the season, with a finals spot up for grabs. A win for Nelson, however, would put him in the box seat to edge out his competitors for that coveted 6th place.
Let’s have another chart shall we?
Did I mention it was tight? Look at those last 4 weeks!! Round 7 would have been a 1-point win to the Pukekos! For the neutral supporter, let’s hope for something similar this week.
In my opinion, Nelson has the better stars (in Ash, Heeney, English and Pickett) but Paul has the better depth. It will come down to what Nelson gets out of his bottom 5 players that will decide this one.
Key outs
Pukekos: Powell
Defenestrators: Green, Kelly, Robertson
Last time these two met
What do you know… it was also Round 18 last year.
It was Nelson who emerged the victor by 115 points. He had 7 players come through with centuries, including Daniel Curtin who is likely named this week. Harley Reid also tonned up in that matchup. I’d be interested to know how many times the #1 pick has managed that so far.
Paul in contrast had only 4 centuries from Roberts, Vlaustin, Salem and Sinclair. Of those four, only one remains on his list and it’s hard to see where any other centuries are coming from.
Buzz’s prediction
Defenestrators to win by 10 points. Brady Hough to score 26 and lose it for the Pukekos.