Last round gave us two big upsets at the top of the ladder, and now round 16 creates a real opening for the chasing pack to bridge the gap.
GAME OF THE ROUND
This here is a massive opportunity for the Devils, and the Roughnecks will be hoping to keep them at bay.
Under threat is the hold the Roughnecks and MaherShalalHashBaz have had on the top two spots for some time now. A win for the Devils draws them level with their opponent on points, and they’ll be out of the top two on points scored alone.
That gap would be tough to bridge, but they may not need to. Crystal ball gazing is tricky at the best of times, but the forward fixture would seem kinder on paper for the Devils. They’d have round 19 marked out in particular. While they put the hurt on the Soldiers that weekend, they’ll also be watching their two competitors face of for a third time this home & away season.
One of them has to lose… that sound you hear is a door opening.
But the equation gets harder if the Roughnecks are able to fend them off this weekend.
The bad news for the Roughnecks though, as far as that equation goes. They’ll be missing two of their big three in Smith and Wanganeen-Milera. No Richards or Marshall either. They’ll be fielding players they’d really rather not.
The Devils’ depth is also tested, but less dramatically so. Rozee remains out, and Kennedy, Wilson, and Langdon miss through bye week machinations. Question marks remain on Amon’s availability though.
Watching this one unfold will prove interesting, even beyond the stakes. Both teams will have had the same number of players take the field by the end of Saturday night. It really is quite remarkably even, in terms of representation in each game up until that point.
The Showdown looms large. It’s Adelaide v Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, but also as far as the Roughnecks & Devils are concerned. At time of writing, the Roughnecks stand to field 5 Crows. The Devils will field 4 reps from the Power, as well as 1 Izak Rankine.
The situation changes on Sunday though. The Devils have nobody in the North v Essendon “blockbuster”. Which means comes Sunday night, rookie Jai Murray and Matthew Johnson will be trying to defend whatever lead the Roughnecks have built thanks to Luke Parker and Sam Durham (well, they’d want to have a lead, for their sakes). Because the Devils will be coming home with a quarter of Dockers, including Luke Jackson and Shai Bolton. Those two scored 273 points between them the last time these two clubs faced off.
Good luck Jai and Matt.
Key Outs
Roughnecks: Smith, Wanganeen-Milera, Richards, Flanders, McInerney, Marshall
Devils: Rozee, Kennedy, Wilson, Langdon
Last time these two met
The Devils delivered the Roughnecks their second loss of the season to that point, downing them by 37 points in a high scoring affair.
The aforementioned Dockers did the damage, though they were ably supported by big scores from Horne-Francis and Karl Amon as well.
DangerGawn votes
| Shai Bolton |  | 138 |
| Luke Jackson | | 135 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | | 120 |
SNEAKY INTERESTING MATCHUP
All due respect to Te Puke Pukekos and Threat Level Midnight, I’ve gotta go with the grand final rematch here – thanks in large part to results in round 15.
Much of what was written above applies to MaherShalalHashBaz too. They went down to the Pukekos last weekend, and these Sparkles are the ones who did a number on the Roughnecks.
A loss for MaherShalalHashBaz here leaves them vulnerable to the threat posed by the Devils. And a win for the Sparkles would make it back-to-back victories over the competition’s leaders. Sounds like a season kick starter to me.
Both teams come into this one stung by both the byes and injuries. MaherShalalHashBaz lost Sinclair in round 15, seemingly for the season. Impey is also hurt, Zorko remains hurt, as does Gunston, while Gawn, Hill and Cameron miss thanks to the bye.
The Sparkles losing Xerri means the ruck duel may not be as one sided in Gawn’s absence. Or perhaps it will be, but still in MSHB’s favour. Nankervis is historically pretty solid. Liam Reidy and Leek Aleer slightly less so.
The Sparkles also lose key players in Dale, Windhager, Stewart, Freijah and Steele to the byes, while McCluggage remains on the sideline.
The end result is a matchup that feels open, albeit perhaps not as optimal as the Sparkles may have hoped for mere days ago.
In a stark contrast to the Roughnecks v Devils game, the North v Essendon game is huge for this matchup – as all North games tend to be for these Sparkles. The Sparkles could have 8 players in this game! MaherShalalHashBaz will likely have a more modest 3, though one of them is Zach Merrett.
The Sparkles will be chasing from the get-go too. MSHB likely have 5 players in the Thursday night game, with all of them bar perhaps Charlie Cameron being heavy hitters. The Sparkles will have Riley Bice alone trying to get them off on the right foot (though the author notes both clubs seem likely to engage in some emergency experimentation)
Key Outs
Sparkles: Dale, Windhager, Stewart, Steele, McCluggage, Freijah, Xerri
MaherShalalHashBaz: Gawn, Zorko, Sinclair, Impey, Gunston, Hill, Cameron
Last time these two met
These two only play great games of late. Round 7’s Grand Final replay was almost as good as that Grand Final. Both teams, yet again, broke the 2000 point barrier. And yet again, it was MaherShalalHashBaz who emerged victorious – this time by 26 points.
MSHB won despite getting a paltry 11 from Taylor Walker? How did the win, exactly? Well, 12 players scored more than 100. That helps. Two old timers in Lachie Neale and Scott Pendlebury both scored more than 150. That helps too.
The Sparkles had 9 centurions themselves, and Nick Daicos missed out on DangerGawn votes despite scoring 135. Their lowest score was a 64 from Joel Freijah. Really unlucky to lose in those circumstances.
DangerGawn votes
| Lachie Neale |  | 159 |
| Scott Pendlebury | | 153 |
| Tristan Xerri |  | 145 |
STRAY OBSERVATION
Every chance we might see a team miss finals despite having a winning record. The Sparkles, Midnight, and Defenestrators all possess an 8-7 record. One of them will miss.
That has never happened before. Heck, the 6th placed finishers has only had a winning home & away record 3 times.
In any other week we’d probably have covered the Pukekos and Midnight matchup, as it’s a big one for both clubs. Pukekos keep stacking the wins, and another here would basically seal a long awaited return to finals.
Meanwhile, the bye periods have been particularly rough on Threat Level Midnight. They’ve not compromised their list integrity to ensure they’ve fielded 22 each week, and paid a small price for it. Last weekend’s matchup against the Soldiers was a brief reprieve, as their finish to the season looks brutal (they’ll go in as surefire favourites just once, against the Vipers in round 19). Can they hang on?
P.S The Defenestrators will beat the Soldiers… right?
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