The Run Home

With 5 rounds of head to head play left, there are still several ladder positions up for grabs. Let’s have a look at how the ladder stands, and what the run home looks like for each team.

The top 2

1. MaherShalalHashBaz (13-3, 30542 points scored)
2. Roughnecks (13-3, 30187 points scored)

With the round 16 results going the way they did, Jordan and Adam seem to have locked up the top 2 spots, with the first week of finals bye that comes with those positions. The top 2 teams all year in total points, they are deservedly the premiership favourites. 

They are both looking at the same equation to lock in their positions. Top 2 would be mathematically secured with 3 more wins out of their last 5 (given their significant advantage over the pack in total points scored) and given they each play the Chiefs and one of Vipers/Soldiers, there’s 2 wins already. Both teams will start favourite in 2 of the other games (both Vs Midnight, MSHB Vs Defenestrators, Roughnecks Vs Pukekos), and then their other game is against each other, which of course one of them must win. This game in round 19 will be the game to determine bragging rights for the minor premiership, but realistically these 2 will be eyeing each other off in that matchup potentially looking at it as a dress rehearsal for the grand final.

Will play finals

3. Taxmanian Devils (11-5, 28666 points scored)
4. Te Puke Pukekos (10-6, 27421 points scored)

Both teams have banked enough wins to this point in the season that their conditioning teams will be looking at their program knowing they have at least one more game post round 21.

For the Devils, their big chance to gain on the top 2 was snuffed out by a Roughnecks team that didn’t bring the massive scores but instead used the consistency that is a hallmark of premiership teams from years past. The Devils have scored the third most points of any team this season, and when Luke Jackson is your starting ruck and Butters on a contract year is in your midfield, anything can happen to your total score. Plays the Soldiers and the Vipers in their final 5 games, so guaranteed to hit the 13 wins that locks in finals. Also has a chance to be party pooper to a couple of teams below them, so could be a fun watch over the final 5 weeks.

For the Pukekos, the challenge of this year was always going to be the start to the year while waiting for the list to get healthy. This has mostly happened, and so the ceiling for this team is at a level that no one can walk into a game against them feeling 100% confident. Jordan in particular will be looking at this team with fear given their finals history – could he try and throw a game to avoid the matchup if that is possible come round 21? A couple of games that they will start underdogs in (Vs Roughnecks and Devils), a couple of games favourite (Vs Chiefs and Soldiers), and a coin flip game Vs Midnight. 2 wins would be enough to guarantee finals, 3 would help ladder position for first finals matchup.

Only room for 2

5. Threat Level Midnight (9-7, 28093 points scored)
6. Love Sparkles (8-8, 28387 points scored)
7. Defenestrators (8-8, 26283 points scored)

This is where all the interest for the neutrals will be for the last 5 weeks. All 3 teams can lay claim to being worthy of a finals spot, but one has to miss and watch the finals happen without them.

Midnight have a lot of talent on the list, but it’s struggled to come together in a meaningful way. Probably the toughest remaining schedule of this group of teams, with matches against both Adam and Jordan, as well as 3^rd placed Max all to come in the final 5. Round 21 is a game vs the Sparkles, and this could well become a win-and -you’re-in game for one or even both of these clubs. Given the round 16 results put them a win ahead of the other 2 in this group, a win against the odds against one or more of the top 3 could well be the difference. Gulden is back which is a huge boost this side of finals, and so now they just have to buckle down and get their work done.

The Sparkles are coming off a premiership and runner up the last 2 years, so to say this has been an underwhelming performance wouldn’t begin to describe it. The plus side for this side is of the teams in this bracket; they have the easiest run home. The avoid the top 3 completely, and with games against each of the bottom 3, combined with their total points scored advantage over Rowan and Paul, they should have enough to sneak into finals. And no one wants to play this team in August given his pedigree. As mentioned above, round 21 looms as a crucial match up – though odds say Greg has done enough before then, it could still be a second chance should there be an unexpected slip up along the way.

The Defenestrators are shaken after a shock loss to the Soldiers in round 16. They would have pencilled that in and then trusted their experience to help hold their top 6 spot. Instead, they need to work their way in, displacing one of their competitors along the way. Will only start as favourite once (Vs Chiefs), and with 3 games against top 4 teams will likely need to upset one, if not two of them, while also beating the Sparkles in their round 19 match (gee that round looks good). They are my tip to miss finals, but given they’ve made it 10 years straight, I’m not prepared to bet big on that yet.

Missing finals

8. Puttanesca Chiefs (6-10, 26516 points scored)
9. Solomon’s Soldiers (2-14, 23518 points scored)
10. Lethal Vipers (0-16, 24067 points scored)

While the Chiefs are not mathematically eliminated from finals yet, given they still play the top 2 teams over the last 5 weeks, that all but seals this fate. The Soldiers and Vipers however have already been eliminated for weeks, now it’s just playing to see how their teams may look next season. 

It seems wrong to link the Chiefs with the Soldiers and Vipers given the difference in total wins as well as total points, but simply, I didn’t want to have to make up a different category just for them. They have secured 6 wins, and scored more points than the 7^th placed Defenestrators, however the fixture being the fickle thing that it is means that they will be on the outside looking in once again in August this year. While finals are beyond this team, they still have opportunity to wreck other team’s seasons, with games against the Defenestrators and Sparkles, both teams needing these wins for their own finals chances. My tip for Mark is that he is cheering for anyone but Jordan in order to maintain the most premierships in league history, however Mark being the good sport he is would probably still welcome Jordan to the Parthenon of Dangergawn greatness should he prevail once again.

The Soldiers were theoverwhelming favourite to win the wooden spoon (even by their own coach), and so having 9^th position all but sealed up is a weird thing to talk about as a positive, yet here we are. They have scored the least points for the league, however had favourable match ups 2 weeks (against the lowest score in the league both times) to get some wins on the board and let their players know there is light at the end of the tunnel. A round 17 match with the Vipers looms as the most interesting week left for this team, as they will be trying for back-to-back wins for the first time since rounds 5 and 6 of 2024, and maybe a little momentum into the offseason. They will then be walloped by 4 finals bound teams to round it out, so maybe not.

The Vipers have all but won the spoon, with only a win over the Soldiers and then an upset win over one of Max, Rowan, Greg or Jordan able to prevent it. This looks extremely unlikely on paper, and so coach Nathan will just be playing for pride to end the season. More total points than the Soldiers, however a strong preseason will be needed to try and get the team moving the right direction up the ladder. The Vipers already have 3 first round picks in the next draft, so as the AFL season comes to a close there will be eyes on the junior comps and some decisions to be made about a draft strategy to bring this team back up to competitiveness.