1st Elimination Final
Fourth placed Te Puke Pukekos may have won two more games than Threat Level Midnight, but they scored 1,326 less points over the course of the season than their opponents this weekend.
The bean counters at the Keeper prediction factory clearly like that second fact more than the first. They’re predicting a comfortable victory for the 5th place finishers.
Who knows how much comfort they’ll take from that though. It’s rarely been glamorous, but Te Puke Pukekos have spent the year doing what’s required to win.
It’s been a long time between finals flavoured drinks for these two clubs. Pukekos haven’t played a final since 2018. Midnight are making their first appearance since the inaugural 2016 campaign!
The good news about these two facing off is one of them is going to break their finals win drought – or, in the case of Midnight, win their first ever final.
Form Guide
The trend line since the byes ended bodes very well for Threat Level Midnight, but last weekend’s result offers hope for Pukekos.
Still, they’ve only broken the 1800 point barrier twice over the past 5 weeks, while Midnight have only failed to reach it once…
Head-2-Head Record
Te Puke Pukekos hold bragging rights between these two clubs, but it’s pretty close. Their rivalry has been defined by extended periods of dominance of one over the other.
It’s only in the last two seasons we’ve seen a bit more back and forth. Midnight will take heart from the most recent results though – they’ve won every time they’ve faced off in 2026.
What to watch
On paper it would seem these two teams will have similar timelines over the weekend, in terms of volumes of players taking the field at any given time. Nonetheless, onlookers will have a few key moments to keep tabs on:
- Big names on Thursday night – Sanders and English take on Sheezel and Bontempelli. One coach will almost certainly have a pep in their step once the night ends. The question is which one?
- Friday night’s Brisbane v Hawthorn game looms large for Te Puke Pukekos in particular. They might have six players in that one (8 if they go full loop), to Midnight’s 3. They’ll be hoping for a fantasy friendly affair.
- Saturday afternoon is barometer central. Pukekos has Bowey, Pickett and Rivers for the Demons, facing off against the typically points restrictive Dockers. Midnight have most improved candidate Tom Sparrow and Caleb Serong. Whose stars will shine brightest here?
- Neither side has Tigers, but they do have Crows. Though Midnight might be down a ruck if the rumours are to be believed. They’ll be hoping the Crows share the ball down back (Worrell and Hall-Kahan), whereas Pukekos will hope Thilthorpe kicks a bag and dabbles in the ruck again, and that Worrell and Hall-Kahan look for Curtin as the outlet.
- The round will close with two on two. Pukekos will have the mercurial Phillipou and the typically handy Florent in the final game of the round, while Midnight will have defensive stalwart Wilkie and Cooper Lord.
Midnight have been stung by injuries and the dreaded ‘managed’. Does that create an opening for Pukekos? If there’s one thing we know about the 2026 edition of this team, it’s that they tend to seize openings.
2nd Elimination Final
The first elimination final features some fresh entrants to the finals arena. The second is a pair of old combatants.
The Sparkles have made it to the previous two grand finals, winning one, and losing the other by a solitary point. They’re pretty handy at this of the time year. Oh, and the one they won was against these Devils. Fair to say these two have some history.
Only 9 points seperates these two over the home and away season, despite being 3rd and 6th respectively. The Keeper platform is predicting a similar degree of seperation this weekend as well.
Form Guide
If the trend line is anything to go by, we’re in for a real treat. The Devils were reeling coming out of the byes, culminating in a shocking loss to the lowly Soldiers. But they’ve bucked up their game over the past fortnight though.
Nothing astonishing mind you, but competitive. And perhaps most importantly, superior to their opponents this weekend.
Head-2-Head Record
It’s not surprising, given the Devils’ historical status as cellar dwellers, that the Sparkles have dominated this matchup over the journey.
What is surprising perhaps is the Sparkles have maintained that dominance even in recent years, when the Devils have been one of the competition’s leaders.
Perhaps they’re still a bit stung having won both clashes during the 2024 season, before having a shocker in the one that really mattered. They’ve been on the backfoot in this matchup since.
So the Devils are perhaps relieved they triumphed in the most recent clash between the two, back in round 13, just to prove they can do it against this mob. Still, it was a closely run thing – just 28 points separated the two.
What to watch
In the other matchup it’s Te Puke Pukekos who will go into Saturday with more players already in the books. Here, it’s the Sparkles. The Devils stand to have just two players play across Thursday and Friday night – Kennedy at the Dogs, and Berry at the Lions.
The Kangaroos are playing those Dogs Friday, which means the Sparkles have a small army on the field. Simpkin, LDU, Daniel, with Xerri (lol) on the bench. Also on the bench is Rhylee West, and Bailey Dale, though he’s there due to injury. Freijah rounds out the Sparkles Thursday night contingent. They’ll be hoping for a hot start to the round.
The Devils will more than square the ledger after the first Saturday game, with 5 representatives in the Dockers v Demons game. He’ll have two Port Adelaide players taking on a pair of Swans in McCartin and Bice, as well as an Ollie Wines. Worpel will then play a lone hand against Stewart, Setterfield and Guthrie.
Saturday night will be huge for the Devils. They’ll have four Tigers taking the field at Adelaide Oval, as well as Izak Rankine, while the Sparkles will have Ben Keays playing a lone hand.
Then on Sunday the reigning back-to-back DangerGawn Medallist will be rolled out, alongside Darcy Cameron, in what would appear to be a fruitful matchup against the Eagles. Tim Kelly is also in ripping form over the last fortnight, so the Sparkles will be hoping this game proves decisive.
They’ll need to emerge with a healthy lead, because the Devils will finish the round with a full hand – 5 players in Cripps, Hewett, Hayes, Hayward and Darcy Wilson, with the Sparkles relying on Blake Acres and Windhager to defend whatever lead they’ve established. This one should go right down to the wire.
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