presented by Jordie!
It’s prelim final weekend. Excitement is high. Well, for four teams. But whether you’re licking your wounds or licking your lips right now, let’s have a look at the chances of the four remaining teams.
MaherShalalHashBaz vs Threat Level Midnight
How We Got Here
The reigning premiers have a very significant hurdle to their premiership defence. That hurdle is Threat Level Midnight. Their two seasons have gone very differently, as indicated in the table below.
| MSHB | TLM | |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-Bye Average | 1961 | 1821 |
| Post-Bye Average | 1890 | 1902 |
Threat Level Midnight are playing their best fantasy football at the right time of year. The arrival and reintegration of Errol Gulden has been massive for Rowan’s team and they are bringing a great energy to every match-up. MaherShalalHashBaz peaked in May.
Some Spice
There is no finals history here as Rowan trail-blazes his way into the history books one week at a time. But some recent trades make this interesting.
At the end of last year MSHB acquired Christian Petracca for a bunch of parts who were on-traded. This, as it turns out, was a genius move by Rowan, because Christian Petracca has been an absolute nightmare lately, scored 39 last week, 50 the week before and at this stage has been dropped from the line-up in a fit of rage.
In preseason, MSHB sent Josh Daicos and Lachie Schulz to TLM for pick 3, who wound up being Willem Duursma. A massive move that will assuredly impact this game, and therefore this season. All three involved in that trade are set to play and eager to make their former coaches remorseful.
Expect a Big One
For MaherShalalHashBaz, Charlie Curnow’s matchup vs Essendon looms large. Can he kick a massive bag and ensure he gets the Coleman? It’s possible. Of course, it’s also possible to fail to capitalize on a weak opponent and just be useless in a final (looking at you Riley Thilthorpe).
For Threat Level Midnight, Tom Sparrow is in outrageous form, averaging 110.8 over his last 5 weeks. He verses Port Adelaide this week, assuming they can field a team. Sparrow looks set to post another huge one.
Spud Alert?
I almost called this section the Conor Blakely section. But didn’t. But still wanted to sneak his name into the write-up. Anyway, super-low scores can ruin a game and lose you a final. And there are always players that could turn in a stinker.
For MSHB, fielding Shannon Neale is risky. Not as risky as Petracca. But still risky. He averages in the 60s. But, he has a nice matchup and is solid on his day. He’s stinky if it’s not his day though.
For TLM, Mitch Owens seems a potential spud selection. He only averages 60.8. He cannot get a look-in with the midfield. But, a friendly match-up vs Richmond and a history of scoring annoyingly well against the team in blue over the years may bode well.
Critical Match-up
The Brisbane-Gold Coast games looms largest over the weekend. MaherShalalHashBaz are stocked with premium lions – Neale, Zorko, Wilmot and Dunkley. Threat Level Midnight have high quality suns – Rowell, Rowell, Powell and Moyle. I mentioned Rowell twice because that last score was ridiculous. And while Touk Miller and Zac Bailey offer a level of insurance for these combatants, it’s a pretty clear case of Jordan cheering for Brisbane, Rowan cheering for Gold Coast, and the results having a huge bearing on the contest.
My Prediction
It will be tight. The odds favour Threat Level Midnight. But I pick MaherShalalHashBaz to win by 46 points. (I mean what am I, a WNBA coach that doesn’t back my own players?)
Roughnecks vs Love Sparkles
How We Got Here
Adam’s Roughnecks have been in a great spot all year. High-scoring enough to be prolific and taken seriously, and just slightly under MaherShalalHashBaz to avoid the dreaded weight of finals favouritism. They finished second on the ladder easily and now play their first final.
The Love Sparkles have had an up and down year and lost a few games to teams they probably shouldn’t have (read Defenestrators). They got the job done in their first final last week against a team missing its prime movers Rozee and Butters. Now they face a team that just received an arrow to the heart with Nas injured.
Some Spice
Plenty of spice in this one.
These two faced off in a prelim last year. And the heavily favoured Roughnecks who led the league in points over the season lost to an absolute masterclass from the Sparkles outfit. It was 2076 to 1930 in the end. But when Tristan Xerri gets 165, LDU gets 162 and they are joined by 5 other centurions, you just shake your head and say “well bowled”.
But this is the SIXTH final these clubs have played. In 11 years! Check out their past
| 2025 | Prelim | Sparkles by 145 |
| 2023 | Elimination Final | Sparkles by 14 |
| 2019 | Elimination Final | Roughnecks by 109 |
| 2018 | Prelim | Roughnecks by 11 |
| 2017 | Elimination Final | Roughnecks by 213 |
The Roughnecks still hold the edge, but recent form certainly favours the Love Sparkles. And this is their third prelim if you don’t mind, currently tied at 1-1.
Expect a Big One
For the Love Sparkles, we are on Xerri watch. He was solid last week. But you suspect he has a big score up his sleeve. And he is capable of monster scores. He’s scored 152 on West Coast and 131 on Geelong this year – and he plays Geelong this week. Combine this with his epic finals series last year where he won the Lance Franklin medal with his score of 154 in the grand final, and that barely believable 165 against the Roughnecks, and you just have a feeling in your bones he’ll go huge.
The Roughnecks still have plenty of high scorers in their mix, even without Wanganeen-Milera. Bailey Smith and Jordan Dawson regularly go huge. But I have a feeling Sicily is primed for a big score too. He’s also won a Lance Fraklin medal and when he is on, he will take marks for fun. Watch for him to give Adam a huge boost this weekend.
Spud Alert?
There are a few candidates for the Love Sparkles, but my money is on Francis Evans. Maybe I’m salty he got a 100 against me in last year’s grand final, and then churned out another hundred last week in a finals week. But surely he goes back to a pumpkin right? Surely! Who is this guy?
For the Roughnecks, their bottom six actually looks very strong. But Sam Durham weirdly dropped a 51 last week and faces a tough matchup with Sydney. He may not scale the heights he has previously in this one.
Critical Match-up
I can’t go past the North vs Geelong game. I already mentioned what Xerri and LDU did last year. Dad has those two, and two other roos, plus two Geelong defenders. If North do well, Adam is in big trouble (Luke Parker notwithstanding). Adam has Parker, but also his ace – Bailey Smith. You feel that if the Sparkles are going to get the edge in this preliminary final, this is the critical match-up that has to break their way, either with Smith a bit quiet or (and?) his roos racking the stats.
My Prediction
In writing this, I’ve almost talked myself into the Sparkles. The odds say the Roughnecks by about 60, and I tend to agree, though I’ll tip the Roughnecks by 150. I see Geelong smashing North, and so think that critical match-up will see a huge match-winning score by Bailey Smith.
So, enjoy folks. If the favourites hold, the Threat Level Midnight-Roughnecks game would guarantee a new premier. Of course, a Burgess Bowl and grand final rematch is also on the cards. Or we could see a repeat of 2019 – either in MSHB-Roughnecks or in 5th vs 6th. It promises to be an interesting weekend, and there are only two weeks of keeper fantasy left.
Let the games begin.