It’s round 24, but more importantly, it’s fantasy Grand Final week. And what we have before us is Threat Level Midnight, in the finals for the first time since 2016, going in as favourites against a team playing their third consecutive Grand Final.
Just as we all predicted.
Threat Level Midnight (5th)
VS
Love Sparkles (6th)
Let’s tuck in, shall we.
Form Guide
Boy does this look a little familiar…
If I’m Rowan, I’m feeling pretty confident. Actually no I’m not, I’m looking at that going “ah well I’m doomed here aren’t I”
But Rowan is made of sterner stuff. He kept Cal Wilkie after all. Perhaps he’ll be as confident as the trend line suggests he should be.
Head-2-Head Record
Unsurprisingly one sided, given one of these teams is a perennial finalist and the other is decidedly not.
But Threat Level Midnight have the edge in season 2026, winning two of their three matchups. They also swept the Sparkles during the 2016 and 2018 seasons, for what it’s worth.
That little period between 2019 and 2025 doesn’t make for kind reading for Midnight though, does it.
How the weekend will unfold
First of all, we got some major outs here.
Threat Level Midnight are missing their star attraction in Harry Sheezel. That hurts. Marcus Bontempelli seems to be in doubt still as well. Not great.
But they toppled the premiership favourites last weekend without those two, so perhaps it’s not a great concern.
The Sparkles are likely to miss their defensive general in Dale. McCluggage and Lipinksi are no certainties to return. Bice is out. Perhaps most concerningly though is the whole “Collingwood have nothing really to play for, should they simply rest key players like Nick Daicos and Darcy Cameron” talk that’s in the atmosphere.
Turning our attention to the players who are playing, something becomes apparently quickly – these two teams have quite a few players in the Thursday and Friday night games.
Threat Level Midnight could have 11 players done and in the books by Friday night! That’s half the team.
One thing is for sure, come Sunday, it’ll be the Sparkles chasing whatever Midnight have put on the scoreboard. Sure, Midnight will have Preliminary Final hero Gulden, and last month of the season hero Joe Richards, but that’s it until the final game of the round.
As is always the case when the Sparkles are involved, the Kangaroos loom large. They’ll be playing on Sunday against the Swans in what is sure to be a very strange game indeed. Perhaps Gulden, who has shown he doesn’t mind being outnumbered, will look very favourably upon the 5 v 1 arrangement this game looks likely to be. The Sparkles will be hoping for a points-fest, because by the time the last game of the round comes round, Midnight could actually have more players in the game.
The round ends with the Eagles hosting the Hawks. The Sparkles will have Jai Newcombe and Tim Kelly – two players in pretty reasonable form. Will they take a punt on Murdock? Midnight will likely have Dylan Moore, Marcus Herbert, and Harry Morrison. We’ve gotten a fair idea how Moore handles pressure at the death this season (hit and miss). Who knows how Herbert and Morrison will fair.
A thing I noticed
The Love Sparkles sure are making a lot of free agent additions during Grand Final week. I feel like that sorta thing is generally not viewed as a positive sign? What’s that expression around dancing with the one that brought you…
But it wouldn’t be the first time a coach recruited someone during Grand Final week and plonked them into the best 22. I’m pretty sure Paul did that back in 2021, bringing in Tim O’Brien and starting him. He scored a 70. The Defenestrators won the flag. Maybe there’s some merit here.
By the way, that 70? The lowest Defenestrator score that weekend. That’s how you win, by 175 points no less, even when your opponent has 5 of the top 6 scorers in the matchup.
P.S Paul please correct me if I’m misremembering the timeline on the Tim O’Brien addition to the squad situation here…
Player matchups worth noting
Threat Level Midnight:
- Almost the entire defence has unfavourable matchups on paper. I’m seeing a lot of red on the Keeper platform here. Worrell and Hall-Kahan have it best, with position rankings of 14th for defenders v Giants. Yuck
- Midfield’s not much better. More red. None of the starters better than a 9th (and that’s Bontempelli, who probably won’t play?)
- Much more favourable up front. Sparrow has a juicy matchup against the Dogs (1st for points allowed to mids). Moore also has favourable conditions against the Eagles (2nd), and Bailey isn’t far behind (6th, v Pies)
That all seems to bode quite well for the Sparkles. What are they looking at.
- Very favourable matchup for Stewart and Guthrie against Richmond (2nd). Defenders in general have much more favourable matchups than their counterparts at TLM. Could this part of the field offer the Sparkles a path to victory?
- Midfield is similarly rough though. The Lions have been quite restrictive towards midfielders of late. Can they contain Daicos?
- Steele has the same favourable matchup Sparrow has. Can he outduel him?
- Hit and miss up forward. Worst possible matchup for Toby Greene against the Crows. Kelly has a great matchup against the Hawks though (3rd for mids), as does Murdock (Hawks are given up more points to “medium forwards” than anybody else of late)
Final word
Last year’s Grand Final was the greatest game in league history. We can’t expect this one to live up to that billing, but hopefully us onlookers are treated to a classic nonetheless.
Regardless of the result, this has been an incredible season for both clubs. The Sparkles, so long a finals flounderer, find themselves simply irrepressible in the final 3 weeks of the season these days. They are refusing to release their grip on grand final day. Would you bet against them featuring again next year?
Midnight has finally put it together after a decade in the fantasy wilderness. Suddenly, they look like a problem for the rest of us moving forward. They are one of the youngest teams in the league. Nearly all of their key players are 25 or younger. Will this weekend be the dawn of a new era for the league? Even if proves not to be and the seasoned veterans over at the Sparkles emerge victorious, it’s hard to imagine Threat Level Midnight won’t be a mainstay on Preliminary Final weekend in the coming years.
The rest of us better nail the draft.
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